As the global population passes the six billion mark, both Taiwan's population and the birth rate continue to fall -- and experts say if the situation does not change within 30 years, Taiwan may face a serious population depletion problem.
"If the theory of continuous negative population growth holds true, then in 1,000 years, Taiwan will end up with no one," said Chang Ming-cheng (
According to statistics from the Ministry of the Interior, as of September 1998, the population of Taiwan, Penghu, Matsu and Kinmen totaled 22,048,356. Of that, 11,293,654 are male and 10,754,702 are female.
The birth growth rate averaged 0.683 percent in 1998. In September, a total of 22,843 babies were born on all the islands, marking an annual birth rate of 1.7 percent, or about one new-born baby every minute.
According to Chang, the decline of the birth rate last year had a legitimate reason. "Taiwanese tend to avoid getting married and giving birth in the year of tiger," he said. "However, with the year 2000 approaching, we will see more babies being born, because it is the year of the dragon."
A reduced birth rate is not the only problem -- Taiwan's population is also aging.
"This year, there are about 1.8 million seniors, accounting for about 8 percent of the population, a ratio of nine adults to one senior. In 30 years, the number of seniors will reach 4.8 million, or a ratio of three to one," Chang said. "That will create a dramatic change in the island's population structure," he said.
The national population policy has been to encourage married couples to have two children, and people may have to hear the slogan of "two [babies] are just fine and one is not too few," (
"We proposed the slogan in 1964, and we don't intend to make any changes to it, at least not for the time being, because we want to maintain a sound population structure and stable population growth," said an official at the Ministry of the Interior's population policy committee (?H?f政稅委-?|).
Chang agreed, saying: "We don't encourage married couples to have more than two children because it simply does not work."
First, Chang said, increasing numbers of young people receive higher education, and higher education degree holders tend to be more enthusiastic about joining the workplace. Their liberal attitudes also play an important role.
A survey conducted by NIFP in 1998 showed that married couples in Taiwan aged between 22 and 39 have an average of 2.4 children. The study also showed that Taiwanese get married at an older age, with men getting married at the age of 30 and women 28.
"That really worries us," Chang said. "My personal philosophy is that if you want to marry and have a family, do it between the ages of 22 and 30."
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