KMT's quake policy is risky, say analysts

As the central government pours increasing resources into rebuilding efforts, political analysts say a wave of dissatisfaction is building among the public -- one that could threaten the KMT's position after next year's presidential election.

The KMT's plight to head up reconstruction efforts, according to Richard Yang (楊日旭), Director General of the Council of Advanced Policy Studies, is a lot like the Chinese proverb "Sai Weng Shih Ma" (塞翁失馬) -- that is, that everything is not always what it may seem, and a loss can be a gain or vice versa.

Yang, himself a member of the KMT, said by keeping itself at the helm, the KMT may be able to show its strength, but it may also reveal its weaknesses.

"It [leading rebuilding efforts alone] shows its incompetence, and then people get angry and feel the government should be more effective," Yang said. "People begin to realize that the bureaucracy can't do much to help them."

Scholars admit that Lien Chan's (連戰) election poll ratings have improved compared to those of Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) and James Soong (宋楚瑜), as he is the only presidential candidate directly involved in recovery efforts. But they add that general approval of the government's efforts is lacking.

After the quake, Lien was given the role of convening the central government's "921 quake-relief supervisory task force," which should normally be the responsibility of the cabinet and headed by Lien's running mate, Premier Vincent Siew (蕭萬長).

A poll released on Saturday by National Chengchi University's public opinion poll center showed 46 percent of respondents felt the central and local governments did well in controlling and coordinating rescue operations.

Another recent poll conducted by the Academia Sinica -- a leading institution -- showed 78.1 percent rated the armed forces as being helpful in post-quake rescue and reconstruction.

Ratings for the central and local governments in disaster regions, meanwhile, were only 33.2 percent and 32.2 percent respectively, according to the survey.

Residents in the worst-affected areas have been quick to express displeasure with the speed of recovery, the slow pace of compensation fund distribution and general uncertainty about how lives will be rebuilt. That displeasure was most recently displayed by a group of hundreds of demonstrators from central Taiwan in front of the Presidential Office on the eve of Sunday's National Day.

"A more systematic way of policy making would help," said Joseph Wu (吳釗燮), a political science professor at National Chengchi University. "There's still a lack of coordination within the government."

He added some of that discord is of the government's own making.

Just over a week ago, President Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) -- overstepping DPP and opposition leaders in the worst-hit counties -- told township leaders that the ball was in their hands, urging them to make more decisions on their own.

This move, Wu said, resembles what he termed "James Soong-style politics."

When Soong was the governor of Taiwan, Wu said, he did the same thing to undermine the influence and effectiveness of opposition leaders at the county level.

According to the government's five-year reconstruction plan, the first phase of formulating a restoration policy and strategy will last until Nov. 30. From November until March 10, reconstruction plans will be drafted, approved and related government agencies will begin work.