With domestic consumption of wine halved in France since the 1950s, the world's number one wine producer has turned to emerging market exports as its savior.
But while the Chinese and Indians have been feted at this year's Vinexpo wine trade show, the world's largest, some attendees warn against both in preference to Russia.
"The margins in China are not there. It is not ready to buy at the price point where wine producers will make money," said David Skalli, a Paris-based wine consultant with family vineyards in France, California and Italy.
In India, said Skalli, the market is growing by 30 percent, but "per head consumption in India is about one teaspoon." He added that the biggest barriers are duties, about 300 percent, and logistics.
Duties are to come down to 150 percent by the end of the year, but distribution and wine understanding remain difficulties.
Bordeaux winemaker Bernard Magrez agreed about being careful in China, having owned a vineyard there for 10 years. "I have done China," he said. "I was there starting from 1991 and I did not make a profit."
Magrez, who was in Russia for many years with his wine and spirits business, William Pitters, shut up shop when he sold the business in 2005. Now, despite his reservations, he will soon start again with a new distribution partner. A good partner, he stresses, is the key.
Skalli also favors Russia over any other emerging market. "For one thing," he said, "the food is European in style .... Chinese food is not made to go with wine, and nor is Indian at the moment."
自一九五０年代以來，法國國內葡萄酒消費量下滑了一半，這個世界首屈一指的葡萄酒生產國已將外銷新興市場視為產業救星。
今年全球規模最大的「國際葡萄酒暨烈酒展覽會」大力讚揚中國與印度市場的成長，但部份與會人士警告，不該一味看好中國與印度市場，應該多留意俄羅斯市場的潛力。
定居巴黎的葡萄酒顧問大衛:斯卡利說：「現階段的中國市場仍無法接受足以讓葡萄酒業者獲利的酒品價位，因此毫無利潤可言。」大衛:斯卡利家族在法國、美國加州及義大利都有葡萄園。
斯卡利表示，雖然印度市場成長三成，但「印度每人葡萄酒消費量僅約一茶匙」。他還說，約３００％的關稅及物流問題是最大的障礙。
雖然年底前關稅將調降至１５０％，但銷售流通及認識葡萄酒方面還是困難重重。
在中國經營葡萄園十年的波爾多製酒商伯納德:馬格利茲認同小心中國市場的說法。「我已投入中國市場，」他說：「早在一九九一年我就進去了，但我並沒有賺到錢。」
曾在俄羅斯經營「威廉:彼德斯」葡萄酒及烈酒生意多年的馬格利茲，二００五年結束公司營運並轉手他人。現在，儘管他態度保留，短期內也將和新的通路夥伴重新投入市場。他強調，好的合作夥伴才是關鍵。
在各新興市場中，斯卡利也比較看好俄羅斯。他說：「一來，俄羅斯食物比較歐洲風味...就現階段來說，中國和印度食物較不適合搭配葡萄酒。」
（法新社／翻譯：林倩如）
WARNING: Excessive consumption of alcohol can damage your halth. 飲酒過量有害健康