Indigenous knowledge about how to spot flood risks ahead of time could save lives in cities, researchers said on Wednesday, as climate change and population growth put millions of people at risk of increasingly unpredictable weather patterns. Understanding changes in natural indicators — such as plants, birds and temperatures — could be used to alert urban residents to extreme weather where forecasts are seen as unreliable, said a study in the Journal of the British Academy.
“Indigenous knowledge is often overlooked,” said Caroline Knowles, director of the cities and infrastructure programme at the British Academy, the UK’s national body for humanities and social sciences. “There are knowledge transfers that can be made between rural and peri-urban spaces that could save lives and livelihoods around the world,” she told the Thomson Reuters Foundation.
The study interviewed 1,050 people in 21 rural and urban communities in Ghana, including the capital city Accra and the main city of Tamale in its Northern Region. Researchers documented natural indicators used by indigenous communities to predict floods, droughts and temperature changes. Those include links between rainfall patterns and ant behavior, appearances by certain birds, flowering of baobab trees and observations of heat intensity, passed down between generations.
Photo: AFP
照片:法新社
Knowles said not all rural indicators could be transferred to urban spaces, but some are relevant for both environments, such as clouds, heat, insects and trees. Promoting tree-planting in urban areas could offer further opportunities to apply indigenous knowledge on flora in cities, said study author Raymond Abudu Kasei from Ghana’s University for Development Studies.
More than 3 million urban dwellers could be at risk of flooding from extreme rainfall by 2050 as climate change brings more unpredictable weather hazards, the study said. Extreme heat and power blackouts, alongside food and water shortages, are other threats if climate-changing emissions are not curbed, a report for the C40 cities network found last year.
As floods become more sudden and hard to predict, the inclusion of indigenous knowledge in science-based warning systems should be prioritized, researchers said this week. “We have seen the use of indigenous knowledge for climate adaptation all over the world,” said Stefan Thorsell, climate advisor at the International Work Group for Indigenous Affairs, who was not involved in the study.
“Indigenous people in Tanzania, Zimbabwe, Myanmar and Ethiopia, for example, use their knowledge to observe and mitigate impacts of extreme climate events such as flooding and droughts,” he added. Dialogue is needed between indigenous groups and climate researchers as “both can learn from one another,” said Knowles.
Indigenous knowledge can be used as an “added layer” to scientific research in designing early warning systems for floods, said Kasei. More work is needed to document traditional knowledge at risk of being lost as the natural environments in which indigenous peoples live become more threatened by climate-related disasters, the study noted.
(Reuters)
隨著氣候變遷與人口增長,使得數百萬人暴露在愈趨無法預測的天氣模式風險中。不過,研究人員於週三表示,關於如何提前辨識出洪水風險的原住民知識也許可以拯救城市裡的芸芸眾生。這篇發表於《英國國家學術院期刊》的研究指出,對於自然界指標變化的理解──例如植物、鳥類或溫度,能用來提醒都市居民對極端天氣提高警覺,特別是在預報已顯得不可靠的極端情況。
英國國家學術院是英國的國家級人文學科與社會科學研究機構,其中的都市與基礎建設研究計畫主持人卡洛琳‧瑙爾斯指出:「原住民知識經常受到忽視。」她向湯森‧路透基金會解釋:「農村和都市週邊地區之間可以進行知識轉移,藉以拯救世界各地的生命和人們的生計。」
這份研究訪問了迦納國內二十一個農村與都市社區中一千零五十名民眾,範圍涵蓋首都阿克拉以及北部地區首府塔馬利。研究人員詳細記錄原住民社群用來預測洪水、乾旱及溫度變化的自然界指標,包括雨量型態和螞蟻行為、特定鳥類的外觀,以及猴麵包樹的花期和高溫強度觀測之間的關聯,這些知識都是代代相傳。
瑙爾斯表示,並非全部的農村指標都可以轉移到都市空間運用,但是某些指標確實和這兩種環境同時相關,例如雲層、高溫、昆蟲與樹木等。迦納發展研究大學的雷蒙‧阿布杜‧卡塞是這篇研究的作者,他表示在都市空間提倡植樹可以提供更多機會,將原住民知識應用在都市裡的植物群體中。
研究指出,隨著氣候變遷帶來更多無法預測的天氣危險,到二○五○年會有超過三百萬名都市居民暴露在極端降雨造成的洪水風險中。「C40城市氣候領導聯盟」二○一八年發布的報告則指出,倘若改變氣候的氣體排放沒有受到約束,將會導致極端高溫、大停電、糧食與用水短缺等其他威脅。
研究人員於本週呼籲,隨著洪水變得更為突然且難以預測,將原住民知識納入以科學為基礎的預警系統應被視為當務之急。國際非營利組織「原住民事務國際工作團隊」的氣候顧問斯蒂凡‧托塞爾雖未參與這份研究,他也指出:「在世界各地,我們都可以看到原住民知識被運用於適應氣候變化的措施中。」
托塞爾補充表示:「舉例而言,在坦尚尼亞、辛巴威、緬甸以及衣索比亞等國家的原住民,會運用他們的知識來觀測和減緩洪水或乾旱這類極端氣候事件造成的影響。瑙爾斯則指出,原住民群體和氣候學者之間應該進行對話,因為「兩方能夠互相學習」。
研究作者卡塞表示,原住民知識可以作為科學研究的「新增階層」,用來設計洪水的早期預警系統。這份研究也提到,隨著原住民居住的自然環境愈趨受到氣候相關災難的威脅,目前學界需要投入更多心力,來記錄面臨消失危機的傳統知識。
(台北時報章厚明譯)
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