The battle for Iraq will be significantly different from any war that has gone before. US and British commanders will be using tactics and weapons that have only been tested in exercises, and despite their overwhelming technological superiority, Operation Iraqi Freedom will run along a knife edge between triumph and disaster.
Much of the 350,000-strong Iraqi army is poorly equipped, demoralized and probably primed to surrender at the earliest opportunity. But from a poor hand, the Baghdad regime can count on four wild cards: chemical and biological munitions, the destruction of oil wells and dams, house-to-house fighting in the cities and the prospect of high civilian casualties.
Each could be devastating for the coalition cause, and much of General Tommy Franks' strategy in the days ahead will be dictated by the need to control the substantial risks these worst-case scenarios represent.
It is the ultimate manifestation of "asymmetrical warfare." Iraqi President Saddam Hussein's conventional forces are no match for the high-tech juggernaut bearing down on him. In terms of technology and sheer might, the coming conflict is likely to be one of the most unequal in history.
But the Iraqi leader's proven readiness to embrace desperate and unconventional measures makes him potentially a far more dangerous foe than any the Pentagon has taken on in recent years.
In the first hours, the US strategy will be driven by psychology, and in particular the Pentagon's two favorite words, shock and awe. It is no accident that the one element of the Iraq war plans the Pentagon has been happy to discuss with the press has been the intention to drop 3,000 precision-guided bombs in the first 48 hours, an overwhelming prospect to anyone who lived through the first Gulf war. The US has more than 30 ships and submarines in the Gulf and the Red Sea capable of firing Tomahawk cruise missiles. The first blasts will come from cruise missiles and bombs from stealth aircraft.
Batwing B-2 stealth bombers will fly out of the British Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia, while shorter range F-117A Nighthawk stealth aircraft will take off from airfields in the Gulf.
They will aim at destroying Iraq's air defenses, command posts and suspected weapons of mass destruction sites.
Such opening salvos are typical of most US-led military operations of recent years, but what follows will not be so familiar.
The bombing went on for more than 40 days in the last Gulf war, annihilating much of the Iraqi force as it stood in the sand, before US commanders sent in ground troops.
This time, there will be more urgency, because of the risk of sabotage to oilfields and dams, together with the strong possibility that if Saddam does indeed have workable chemical or biological weapons, he will use them. Furthermore, the longer the bombing goes on, the higher the risk of anti-American unrest around the world.
And this time massed conscripts will be given a chance to survive. The sheer scale of the aerial bombardment is aimed at terrifying regional commanders and their men into standing aside.
Electronic warfare plans have already begun broadcasting messages on Iraqi military frequencies giving precise instructions on how to avoid obliteration. Iraqi troops have to point the gun barrels of the tanks toward the ground and withdraw to barracks. Officers will be allowed to retain their side-arms and their dignity.
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