Second, the US must remove the ambiguity that currently exists about whether we will defend Taiwan in the event of a PRC military attack, a by-no-means unrealistic prospect. This ambiguity, worsened dramatically in the last seven years by President Clinton's unprecedented deference to Beijing, encourages the PRC to believe that it might actually succeed at a propitious moment, and thus contributes to instability. Full recognition of Taipei would underscore the strength of America's military commitment, and thus help stabilize the straits. Moreover, recognition would clearly indicate to others in East Asia that the US was firmly committed to resisting PRC military or political adventurism generally, thus strengthening the US hand in the region. This is not a "containment" or "encirclement" policy toward Beijing, but simply a logical way to protect important American political and economic interests in the region.
Third, recognizing Taiwan will no more subvert the "one China" policy than did our Cold War recognition of the two Germanies. In fact, the question of "when" and "under what circumstances" reunification might take place inevitably shades into the question of "whether" it will do so. Optimism that democratic transformation in China is inevitable does not necessarily mean it will be expeditious; the continued fears of Hong Kong democrats are the only evidence anyone really needs to underscore the legitimacy of Taiwanese warnings about the premature creation of "one China."
American policy should not be to prejudge the outcome for "China" one way or the other. If both sides of the Taiwan Straits decide to reunify, we can welcome that development; if they do not, we can welcome that as well. But until then, America should set its own foreign policy and not follow the dictates of Beijing or anyone else.
John Bolton is the senior vice president of the American Enterprise Institute. During the Bush administration, he served as the assistant secretary of state for international organization affairs.
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