Unfortunately, although Republican critics of administration policy are more consistent, they are also more dangerous. GOP congressmen are pushing the Taiwan Security Enhancement Act, which would enhance the military relationship between Taiwan and the US. Some conservative activists want to formally recognize Taiwan as the Republic of China. They would threaten to use force if Beijing acted against Taipei.
The risks of such an approach are many. China would likely sever diplomatic relations with the US and, despite its modest military, could not easily ignore an American decision to recognize Taipei, let alone a Taiwanese declaration of independence. A measured Chinese response -- seizing some essentially indefensible Taiwanese offshore islands, for instance -- would force Washington to choose between humiliating retreat and dangerous escalation. In neither case could the US (or Taiwan) count on the support of its East Asian allies. Japan, South Korea and the Philippines have all emphasized that their "mutual" defense treaties with the US do not cover contingencies in the Taiwan Strait.
The US should adopt a new policy of conflict avoidance. Taiwan's future should be up to Taiwan's people, not the communist rulers in Beijing. However, responsibility for defense, like the decision on independence, should be left with Taipei.
Washington should make clear that Taiwan will pay the price for miscalculating any move towards independence. The capitalist and democratic island is a valuable friend, but America has at stake no interests that justify risking war with the nuclear-armed PRC. Washington should, however, sell Taipei the weapons that would allow it to defend itself.
Obviously, the PRC would be foolish to confront the US militarily. But nationalism sometimes causes nations to do stupid things, and Beijing rationally believes Washington has less at stake in Taiwan than does China.
Although the Clinton administration has proved sadly ready to go to war, so far its adversaries have been pitiful. Conflict involving the PRC would be vastly different. Washington should clarify its policy, lest it accidentally encourage war to erupt in the Taiwan Strait.
Doug Bandow is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute and former special assistant to President Reagan. Ted Galen Carpenter is Cato's vice president for defense and foreign policy studies.?
RSS