War of diversion and harassment possible
Earlier we mentioned that most wars aim to forcibly persuade the enemy to succumb to one's dictate. In its life-span the PRC has repeatedly resorted to limited wars, but not wars aimed at bringing about the above goal. It has fought wars simply to harass or intimate its enemy (for example, the 1979 incursion into Vietnam). In early 1968 it fought a bloody but short war with the Soviet Union on the Chengbao/Damansk island in the Ussuri river.
In light of history, one cannot rule out the possibility that the PLA may taking advance of a US lack of resolve to occupy an island whose ownership is in dispute, such as Taiping Island in the Spratley atoll chain. The PLA occupied the Paracell (Shisha) islands after a brief clash with Vietnamese forces following the US pullout from Indochina. It occupied Mischief Island shortly after the 7th Fleet pulled out of Subic Bay in the Philippines. The PLA may seize the Prata (Tungsha) atoll island when it senses a right moment.
In addition, Beijing may unleash a military operation of limited scope and duration against Taiwan -- not to accomplish any of the above goals but simply to harass Taiwan, cause a stock market panic, or out of sheer frustration from not being able to bring Taiwan to the negotiating table, much less force Taiwan into accepting its term.
The PRC may also resort to a limited military action to capitalize on and inflame its people's chauvinistic nationalism in order to divert internal discontent, to deflect mounting domestic tension (due to its inability to meet "rising expectations and frustrations"), and to prolong the CCP's dictatorial rule.
Chen Pi-chao
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