US intelligence analysts have discovered evidence that South Korea is trying to develop longer-range ballistic missiles while keeping some of the program's key aims secret from Washington, US officials say.
US spy satellites detected fresh evidence of the program's extent last year, and US concerns intensified further after a missile test this year, the officials said.
The US, South Korea's closest ally, has been tracking its missile research carefully for years.
Illustration: Mountain People
US President Bill Clinton and his top aides discussed their latest concerns with top South Korean officials last summer.
In addition, the Clinton administration has been pressing North Korea to restrain its missile programs.
The spy satellite photos revealed last year indicate that South Korea had built a rocket motor test station without notifying the US, according to Pentagon analysts who reviewed the intelligence.
The station, which includes a large concrete or tempered steel cradle, in which rocket motors are locked for firing tests, appeared to have been built secretly as part of a larger South Korean ballistic missile program, the officials said.
In April, South Korea conducted a short flight test of a new missile that appeared to violate its agreements with the US, American officials said.
For Clinton administration officials already deeply worried about North Korea's missile and nuclear programs, South Korea's apparent efforts to develop a strategic capability of its own have raised the prospect of a regional arms race at a time when North Korea's stability is increasingly in doubt.
South Korea's missile ambitions prompted Clinton to discuss the issue personally with South Korean President Kim Dae-Jung in July, US officials said, and US Defense Secretary William Cohen also raised the issue during a trip to Seoul later that month.
Clinton administration officials refused to comment directly on the evidence uncovered by the US spy satellites last year, but one acknowledged that parts of the South Korean ballistic missile program have been hidden from the US.
``We are interested in greater transparency in their missile development,'' the official said. ``We don't want this issue to become a point of friction in our bilateral relationship.''
The officials stressed, however, that no single piece of intelligence had suddenly prompted the administration's efforts to limit South Korea's missile program. Washington has known about South Korea's efforts to develop ballistic missiles for years, they said, and the Clinton administration has been working quietly but consistently to contain the program.
``This is an issue of longstanding concern between us,'' said one US official. ``They have been working on a ballistic missile program for a long time, and this is an issue that is raised with them frequently.''
A South Korean government official, however, denied that Seoul has sought to shield parts of its ballistic missile program from the US.
``I believe we have kept transparency in the missile field with the United States,'' said Yoon Joe-shim, an official at the South Korean Embassy in Washington.
While no final agreement between the US and South Korea has been reached, the Clinton administration has signaled to South Korea that it is willing to accept limited improvements on the range of South Korea's ballistic missiles, US officials said.
Under a bilateral agreement with the US, South Korea has restricted the range of its missiles to around 110 miles, and its arsenal is largely stocked with older, US-designed systems. South Korea has accepted those restrictions because of its dependence on the US military, which Seoul counts on to provide a strategic deterrence against North Korea.
But now, the Clinton administration has told Seoul that it will accept an increase in the range of its ballistic missiles to 180 miles, the limit established for countries belonging to a group known as the missile technology control regime. The US also wants South Korea to join that group, thus locking Seoul into limits on the range of its missiles.
``We have been working with them on how this should develop,'' said one American official. ``We have been talking to them about our concerns that they not develop missiles beyond that range.''
James Rubin, the US State Department spokesman, added that ``it is public knowledge that South Korea would like more flexibility in its missile program. The US is sympathetic to its needs and desire for flexibility, and we are hoping to work out an arrangement that conforms to our nonproliferation goals and the missile regime standards.''
Yet South Korea appears to be developing missiles with ranges of 300 miles or more to counter North Korean missiles of similar or even longer ranges, US officials and outside experts believe.
North Korea's missile program has made rapid advancements in the past year or two.
In addition to its No Dong missiles, which have a range of 600 miles and could hit all of South Korea and parts of Japan, North Korea surprised US intelligence officials in August 1998 by flight-testing a three-stage version of its Taepo Dong 1, an intercontinental ballistic missile that could be capable of hitting parts of the US with light payloads.
North Korea has also been developing the Taepo Dong 2, an inter-continental missile believed to be capable of carrying larger payloads than the Taepo Dong 1.
Last April, facing the prospect that the North Koreans would soon flight-test the Taepo Dong 2, South Korea flight-tested a new ballistic missile, US officials say.
That missile went only about 30 miles, but analysts believe the South Koreans did not fully fuel it to avoid a dispute with the US, and say it may have a range of as much as 300 miles.
The Clinton administration appeared to win something of a cooling-off period in the Korean missile race in September, when North Korea agreed not to conduct flight tests of the Taepo Dong 2. In return, Clinton agreed to ease some US trade sanctions that had been imposed on the country for nearly half a century.
Clinton administration officials and independent analysts say that South Korea's efforts to develop longer-range ballistic missiles come from its interest in forging a military strategy that is not completely dependent on US forces for protection.
``The South has talked for some time about having a more well-rounded force structure, one that is more independent'' of the US, said Michael Green, an Asian analyst at the Council on Foreign Relations.
In the past, South Korean efforts to develop independent military capabilities have reflected the ebb and flow of its relations with the US. In the late 1970s, when US President Jimy Carter reduced the number of American troops defending South Korea, ``the Koreans lost faith, and were doing things that they weren't telling us about,'' said Donald Gregg, a former US ambassador to South Korea.
Now, however, Kim, who took office in February 1998, has not opposed the Clinton administration's efforts to negotiate with the North Korean regime and has sought to open a serious dialogue with the North.
``I've been impressed with the maturity of the current South Korean government in allowing the US freedom in dealing with North Korea,'' said James Laney, who served as the American ambassador to South Korea from 1993 until 1997.
Other analysts suspect that South Korea is still hedging its bets.
``I think the South Koreans are trying to use this as a lever with the US, positioning themselves on missile talks with the North,'' said George Friedman of Stratfor, a private research company in Austin, Texas, that has issued reports on the South Korean missile program. ``Their missile program has many purposes, both to position themselves in the region, in relation to North Korea, and in relation to the United States.''
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