While ethnic Albanians in Macedonia demonstrated once again how important their votes are, the opposition Macedonian parties such as Social Democratic Alliance (SDSM) and the Liberal Democrats (LDP) were forced to recognize something that the parties in the ruling coalition -- the Macedonian nationalists (VMRO-DPMNE), the Democratic Alternative (DA) and the Democratic Party of the Albanians (DPA) -- have known since November 1998: ballots have no color, no name, no ethnic nor religious origin. But they sure can make a difference.
In last year's parliamentary elections in Macedonia, the the former communist SDSM won eight additional parliamentary seats because they were able to get an extra 2,000-3,000 Albanian votes in electoral districts that are Macedonian-dominated, but which have approximately 30 percent ethnic Albanian population.
Judging by the way this party has acted towards Albanians during the election campaign, one can say that they haven't learned the lesson. Yet, the situation changed during the presidential elections, as the votes of ethnic Albanians had a final word in deciding which of the two Macedonian candidates would win the presidential chair. Despite all present controversies, one thing is for sure: the Albanian votes from now on will be decisive on many issues -- because of the proportion of Albanians within the overall number of voters in Macedonia and because of the present setup of the political scene in Macedonia.
Illustration: Mountain People
The only way that this can be avoided would be through a homogenization of the ethnic Macedonian voters on purely ethnic, as opposed to ideological, lines.
Although this may sound attractive to hard-line Macedonian nationalists, it is doubtful that they will find the strength to field a joint candidate who could represent the interests and gain the sympathies of all political subjects from the ethnic Macedonian political community.
Not to mention that this would seriously damage the democratic image of the country.
Now that the presidential elections are over and especially after the surprising early congratulations from Washington and Brussels to the newly-elected President, Boris Trajkovski, there are a few remaining questions that were pushed into the background before and during the election campaign so they would not "corrupt the idyllic harmony" between coalition partners VMRO-DPMNE and DPA.
One such question that dominates the minds of (not only) the Albanians is whether the coalition government and the parliament (both dominated by the VMRO-DPMNE) will show more support to Albanians in obtaining equal status within a multi-ethnic Macedonia. Surprisingly enough, now that the joint "enemy" -- the SDSM -- has been defeated, most of the Albanians that voted in favor of Trajkovski cannot hide their skepticism. Experiences from the past have forced the Albanians not to believe in promises and political "one night stands."
Back in 1990, the soon-to-be President Kiro Gligorov (a socialist) was also elected thanks to Albanian votes, but this didn't stop him from virtually refusing all requests by the ethnic Albanians throughout his mandate. He also continually supported the SDSM government every time that it provoked some inter-ethnic incident, which were often followed by brutal police intervention.
This attitude is still in the memory of the Albanians and fresh enough to force them to look at the near future with a considerable dose of skepticism and reserve. On the other hand, one cannot deny the fact that the number of inter-ethnic incidents and conflicts drastically decreased during the first 10 months of the joint coalition government of the VMRO-DPMNE, the DA and the DPA.
One could even conclude that the inter-ethnic relations have never been as calm as they are now, mainly because Albanians have been preoccupied with helping Kosova Albanians.
Some even consider such calm as a clear signal that maybe this government is willing to change something in favor of the Albanians.
After all, Albanians had proven their loyalty to Macedonia during the Kosova crisis and the influx of 340,000 refugees.
Of course, the truth of the matter is that they had been loyal for all of the past 10 years, but the previous government had used the Albanians as a scapegoat to attract attention away from the economic and social discontent.
While the coalition leaders are still enjoying the taste of the victory champagne, it is difficult to believe that the election results didn't make them think. The considerable number who voted in favor of Tito Petkovski and his (SDSM) option of anti-Albanian and anti-Western attitude should concern many, but mainly Prime Minister Georgievski and his partner Arben Xhaferi, leader of the DPA. Georgievski's government has not resolved (nor even discussed) any of the main issues of the Albanian community (education policy, recognizing the University of Tetova, a recognized status as a Constitutive nation, a more favorable policy of employing Albanians in the state administration).
Nevertheless, this did not prevent the SDSM from launching an all-out campaign criticizing Georgievski for incapability -- and even national treason.
As the campaign proceeded, the coalition was accused of flirting with Bulgaria, being too ready to recognize Kosova and legalize the University of Tetova and of losing control over western Macedonia in favor of the DPA.
There is no doubt that the SDSM will closely observe every move Georgievski makes and never miss an opportunity to cover up their defeat by defining such moves as high treason against Macedonian national interests. With the present unemployment rate and growing social discontent, such accusations could still draw many angry citizens into the streets.
The irony is that this government (just like the previous one) has in fact made no concrete advances in the status of the Albanian community.
The core issues mentioned above were put on "ice" because of the Kosova crisis. Now that the crisis is over, and they have fulfilled their duty of ousting the SDSM, Albanians will certainly expect Xhaferi to use his position in the coalition to do something for them.
For the time being, it seems that the DPA is holding the trump cards. It can always remind their coalition partners of the Albanian role during the refugee crisis and the significant contribution in establishing a "monopoly"over the government, parliament and the presidency.
Furthermore, the DPA is the key element for government stability or instability, in the sense of securing a parliamentary majority and assuring support from the ethnic Albanians.
Arben Xhaferi has proved to be a master of tactics and strategy, and therefore one can expect that he will now concentrate on domestic affairs and try to fulfill his party promises and improve the position of the Albanians in Macedonia.
The DPA has already been warned in the first round of the presidential election, when a considerable number of Albanians voted for the DA's Vasil Tupurkovski and his economic recovery program.
This was enough to alarm the two Albanian political parties to prevent the further erosion of "national" votes towards the Macedonian version of "Rainbow" coalition of Macedonians, Albanians, Turks and Romas that make up the DA.
A year ago, when it defeated the SDSM government that had run Macedonia since independence, this government welcomed the arrival of the last -- 10 years late -- train from Berlin. After completing the former communist government of the SDSM, it remains to be seen if it will have the strength to crush the wall of ethnic distrust.
Arsim Zekolli is contributing editor at the Albanian-language newspaper Fakti.
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