Repeatedly during the conference, the complaint was raised that more and more was being written about less and less. What is now needed are studies that summarize and integrate these disparate case studies into a more comprehensible pattern. While China watchers need to be aware of local variation and change over time, we also need to pay attention to similarities and patterns. More explicit comparisons, not just between China as a whole and other countries, but also between different areas within China, are needed to balance our understanding of the pieces and the whole.
The future of China watching
American China watchers have contributed greatly to the general understanding of the changes taking place within China. China watchers are certainly not infallible -- scholars often chase the latest intellectual fad, government analysts correctly saw the Sino-Soviet split but missed the Cultural Revolution, and business people have too often ignored their business sense at the prospect of a billion consumers in China. Improved access and sources of information have led to changes in the China watching community, for better and worse.
Most China watchers, whether scholars, government, business or media, are interested in the current scene in order to anticipate future developments. Having confidence in assessments of the present and forecasts of the future depend on the accuracy of past observations. Taking stock of where China watchers have gotten it right and where they have gotten it wrong is a necessary process, if not always a comfortable one.
Bruce J. Dickson (狄忠浦) is director of the Sigur Center for Asian Studies the George Washington University in Washington, D.C.
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