Taiwan needs to have a functional referendum system in place as a “weapon of peace” against a potential invasion by China, former vice president Annette Lu (呂秀蓮) said yesterday after Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong (李顯龍) reiterated support of Beijing’s “one China” principle, which Lu said was prompted by China’s attempts to annex Taiwan.
At a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) on Wednesday, Lee said Singapore supports the “one China” principle and opposes Taiwanese independence.
Lee’s statement, coupled with Nigeria in January announcing its support of the “one China” principle and moving Taipei’s office from its capital, Abuja, to Lagos, show that Beijing plans to solicit support from other countries through diplomatic finesse, Lu said during a cross-strait security forum she organized.
Photo: Liao Chen-huei, Taipei Times
“What can Taiwan do if more countries announce [support for the ‘one China principle] in a few months? Will Taiwan’s voice be heard?” Lu said.
Progress is needed on a planned amendment to the Referendum Act (公民投票法), because there is no functional referendum law until it is completed, which would evolve into a dire situation should cross-strait tensions escalate to the point of conflict, she said.
“We need to have a weapon of peace,” she said.
She said she has advised Premier William Lai (賴清德) to ensure “three types of security” — national, social and emotional security for people in Taiwan — and “three types of peace” — peace across the Taiwan Strait, in East Asia, and between political parties and ethnic groups.
Academics at the forum called for the nation to increase its military capabilities in addition to Lu’s “weapon of peace” to deter a Chinese invasion.
National Taiwan Normal University political science professor Fan Shih-ping (范世平) said Taiwan should retain its ability to develop nuclear weapons to deter a Chinese invasion, as risks of a military conflict across the Taiwan Strait would continue to increase in the run-up to the 2024 elections.
“A war across the Taiwan Strait is most likely in 2024,” Fan said.
If the Democratic Progressive Party were to win the general elections in 2020 and 2024 — meaning it would be the ruling party for 12 consecutive years — Beijing might interpret that as a sign that peaceful unification is impossible, which could prompt a military intervention, he said.
It has been speculated that Xi will reinstate and assume the position of chairman of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), which would allow him to hold onto power until 2027, and could pledge at the party’s 19th National Congress next month to solve the “Taiwan issue” as leverage to do so, he added.
Another possible contributing factor to a cross-strait conflict would be the re-election of US President Donald Trump, who apparently has no influence over Beijing and might seek an alliance with China over North Korea at the expense of Taiwan, Fan said.
As several countries have apparently adopted a policy of appeasement toward North Korea, it is likely that they would do the same in the event of a cross-strait conflict, so Taiwan must retain the ability to quickly produce nuclear weapons to prepare for the possibility that outside powers refuse to step in should China declare war on Taiwan, he added.
Academia Sinica research fellow Joanne Chang (裘兆琳) said that Taiwan has to develop military power to achieve a peaceful dialogue with Beijing.
“Weakness is provocative,” Chang said, quoting former US secretary of defense Donald Rumsfeld, and called for the nation’s defensive capabilities to be improved.
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