A Donald Trump presidency does not mean the US will withdraw from the South China Sea, but rather will continue pursuing “regional hegemony,” Chinese academics who drafted a report for an influential government think tank said yesterday.
Ensuring “absolute control” over the South China Sea was the crux of US military strategy in the Asia-Pacific, according to what the authors said was China’s first-ever public report on the US military presence in the region, released yesterday in Beijing.
“There will be no overturning change to US policy in the South China Sea,” said Wu Shicun (吳士存), president of the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, an influential Hainan-based think tank that wrote the report.
Trump rarely mentioned the South China Sea on the campaign trail, but concentrated on the US’ economic relationship with Beijing, threatening to label China a currency manipulator and impose import tariffs on Chinese imports.
US commitments to its allies would not change, nor would its stance on protecting freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, Wu said.
As such, tensions between Beijing and Washington in the South China Sea would likely grow in lock-step with China’s military growth, he added.
China claims most of the energy-rich waters through which about US$5 trillion in ship-borne trade passes every year. Neighbors Taiwan, Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam also have claims.
Recent US efforts to counter what it sees as China limiting freedom of navigation in the South China Sea have drawn Beijing’s ire and stoked fears of military conflict. A patrol by US warships last month was dubbed “illegal” and “provocative” by the Chinese Ministry of National Defense.
“From the US perspective, China’s large-scale construction activities in the South China Sea confirmed US suspicion that China intended to implement an anti-access/area-denial strategy,” the report said.
There would be “more continuity than change” in Trump’s military policy in the Asia-Pacific, Zhu Feng (朱鋒), director of the South China Sea Center at Nanjing University, said at the report launch.
He added that Trump might not use the term “rebalancing” to the region, but he would likely retain most of the policies.
Both academics agreed that there was a high possibility of increased US military spending in the Asia-Pacific under Trump.
A Trump administration would “not be an exception” to other Republican-led governments that increase military spending when they take office, Zhu said.
The build-up of military might in the region has led to concerns about a rising risk of accidental collisions that could spark conflict.
The decision to release a public report now was not China “preparing for war,” but rather to avoid an “arms race” between China and the US, Zhu said.
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