Academia Sinica (中央研究院) yesterday slashed its forecast for GDP growth this year to 0.75 percent and predicted that the economy would expand 1.74 percent next year, citing a weak global economy and the poor export performance.
Following the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research (台灣經濟研究院) and Yuanta-Polaris Research Institute (元大寶華研究院), Academia Sinica is the third local research institute to forecast that the nation’s economic growth would be below 1 percent this year and below 2 percent next year.
The nation’s top research institute in July forecast that the economy would expand by 3.24 percent this year.
Photo: CNA
“Taiwan’s economy faced a dramatic downturn this year, taking a lot of people by surprise,” Academia Sinica economics researcher Kamhon Kan (簡錦漢) told reporters on the sidelines of a press conference.
Kan attributed the weak growth to lower crude oil prices and China’s sluggish economy, saying that the nation’s economic growth is heavily dependent on China and is being affected by its economic transition.
Due to weak exports and private investment amid slowing growth in the global economy, Academia Sinica forecast that the economy this quarter would contract by 0.66 percent from last year and shrink 0.15 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of next year.
As the economy contracted by 0.63 percent year-on-year in the third quarter, Academia Sinica’s latest forecast suggests three consecutive quarters of annual decline in GDP growth, driven mainly by the continued weakness in external demand.
The latest government data showed that exports fell for the 10th consecutive month last month on an annual basis, while imports also posted 12 consecutive months of annual contraction due to poor private investment.
“This is first time Taiwan’s major economic barometers have faced such an awful situation since 2012,” Academia Sinica research fellow Ray Chou (周雨田) said.
Chou said the nation’s economic performance in the first quarter of next year would determine whether it has entered a recession.
Overall, Chou said that while developed countries are expected to see stable economic growth next year, the institute expects limited growth in Taiwan’s economy given the impacts of low crude oil prices, unstable economies in emerging markets and more interest-rate increases in the US.
However, Chou said that if emerging markets could overcome the negative impact of lower crude oil prices next year, those nations might increase global trade volume and improve the nation’s exports next year.
Domestically, Chou said that after five consecutive months of declining consumer confidence, private consumption might grow 1.75 percent year-on-year next year, slower than this year’s estimated 2.5 percent growth.
He said the nation’s private investment is to increase mildly by 2.09 percent from this year, citing the continued contraction in the manufacturing purchasing managers’ index and a gloomy outlook for exports of machinery goods and electronic components.
The government is aiming to recruit 1,096 foreign English teachers and teaching assistants this year, the Ministry of Education said yesterday. The foreign teachers would work closely with elementary and junior-high instructors to create and teach courses, ministry official Tsai Yi-ching (蔡宜靜) said. Together, they would create an immersive language environment, helping to motivate students while enhancing the skills of local teachers, she said. The ministry has since 2021 been recruiting foreign teachers through the Taiwan Foreign English Teacher Program, which offers placement, salary, housing and other benefits to eligible foreign teachers. Two centers serving northern and southern Taiwan assist in recruiting and training
WIDE NET: Health officials said they are considering all possibilities, such as bongkrekic acid, while the city mayor said they have not ruled out the possibility of a malicious act of poisoning Two people who dined at a restaurant in Taipei’s Far Eastern Department Store Xinyi A13 last week have died, while four are in intensive care, the Taipei Department of Health said yesterday. All of the outlets of Malaysian vegetarian restaurant franchise Polam Kopitiam have been ordered to close pending an investigation after 11 people became ill due to suspected food poisoning, city officials told a news conference in Taipei. The first fatality, a 39-year-old man who ate at the restaurant on Friday last week, died of kidney failure two days later at the city’s Mackay Memorial Hospital. A 66-year-old man who dined
‘CARRIER KILLERS’: The Tuo Chiang-class corvettes’ stealth capability means they have a radar cross-section as small as the size of a fishing boat, an analyst said President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) yesterday presided over a ceremony at Yilan County’s Suao Harbor (蘇澳港), where the navy took delivery of two indigenous Tuo Chiang-class corvettes. The corvettes, An Chiang (安江) and Wan Chiang (萬江), along with the introduction of the coast guard’s third and fourth 4,000-tonne cutters earlier this month, are a testament to Taiwan’s shipbuilding capability and signify the nation’s resolve to defend democracy and freedom, Tsai said. The vessels are also the last two of six Tuo Chiang-class corvettes ordered from Lungteh Shipbuilding Co (龍德造船) by the navy, Tsai said. The first Tuo Chiang-class vessel delivered was Ta Chiang (塔江)
EYE ON STRAIT: The US spending bill ‘doubles security cooperation funding for Taiwan,’ while also seeking to counter the influence of China US President Joe Biden on Saturday signed into law a US$1.2 trillion spending package that includes US$300 million in foreign military financing to Taiwan, as well as funding for Taipei-Washington cooperative projects. The US Congress early on Saturday overwhelmingly passed the Further Consolidated Appropriations Act 2024 to avoid a partial shutdown and fund the government through September for a fiscal year that began six months ago. Under the package, the Defense Appropriations Act would provide a US$27 billion increase from the previous fiscal year to fund “critical national defense efforts, including countering the PRC [People’s Republic of China],” according to a summary