The government yesterday cut its forecast for GDP growth this year to 1.06 percent, down 0.5 percentage points from the 1.56 percent projected in August due to persistent weakness in external demand.
For the first three quarters, the economy grew 1.26 percent from a year earlier after seasonal adjustments, but the growth momentum this quarter might be only 0.49 percent, the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) said.
Citing international research institute IHS Global Insight’s latest forecast, the DGBAS said exports this quarter would continue to be suppressed by a weak global economy.
Photo: Cheng Chih-fang, Taipei Times
Inventory adjustments in the manufacturing sector and increasing competition from the Chinese supply chain also weighed on exports, the DGBAS said.
“As a result, we expect exports this quarter to drop by a double-digit percentage from a year earlier, following the third quarter’s 13.87 percent annual decline,” DGBAS Minister Shih Su-mei (石素梅) told a news conference in Taipei.
The poor showing in exports led the DGBAS to slash its forecast for GDP growth this quarter by 1.41 percentage points from its previous estimate of 1.9 percent, Shih said.
While external demand remains soft this quarter, private consumption might improve from last quarter, supported by the government’s short-term economic stimulus measures, the DGBAS said.
The measures include subsidies for the upgrade of 2G handsets to 4G handsets, for the purchase of “energy-efficient” home appliances and for domestic travel.
Citing a National Development Council estimate, Shih said the economic stimulus measures might lend support of NT$16.1 billion (US$490.63 million) to GDP.
She said that about 80 percent of that amount, or NT$12.88 billion, would likely contribute to GDP this quarter, while the remaining 20 percent would show up in next quarter’s GDP numbers.
The DGBAS forecast GDP growth next year to be 2.32 percent, down 0.38 percentage points from its forecast of 2.7 percent in August.
The revised forecast is largely based on IHS’ trimmed forecast of 2.9 percent growth for the global economy next year, DGBAS statistics section head Wu Pei-hsuan (吳佩璇) said.
Wu said the economies of developed and emerging countries next year are expected to be better than this year.
However, potential volatilities in global financial markets and non-economic risks might affect the global economy next year, Wu said.
The DGBAS’ forecast for next year did not factor the aftermath of the terror attacks in Paris and the scale of the economic slowdown in China, she added.
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