Rising concerns over the slowing global economy were reflected in the latest updates on tracking indicators by the government and academic bodies published yesterday.
The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), a monthly survey by National Central University, logged 86.15 this month, falling 3.43 points from 89.58 last month, dragged down by an across-the-board tumble in all of its six indices.
The index gauging stock investment sentiment registered the steepest drop among the poll’s sub-indicators, falling 11.3 points to 73.2 from 84.5 last month as the TAIEX has shed nearly 700 points since its first trading session this month.
Photo: CNA
The index measuring outlook on the nation’s economy fell 4.15 points to 77.2, while the index on the consumption of durable goods fell 1.8 points to 103.65.
Dachrahn Wu (吳大任), director of the university’s Research Center for Taiwan Economic Development, which helped conduct the survey, said that despite the current slump, most indicators are still relatively high from a more long-term view compared with the results during previous bouts of economic downturn.
“The CCI is primarily a study on the public’s sentiment on the economy, which is subjective in nature, but the results reflect government statistics such as the downgraded forecasts for GDP growth and exports,” Wu told the Taipei Times by telephone.
Wu said that for more than a decade, the CCI has never been above 100, which indicates optimism.
“Taiwan’s public is known to be averse to risk and often holds a more conservative outlook on economic prospects,” Wu said.
Meanwhile, the National Development Council said the overall score for the government’s business monitoring system last month dropped two points to 14, moving lower in the “blue” zone for the second consecutive month.
The “blue” rating in the council’s five-color spectrum indicates a listless condition. The indicator first used blue this year in April, and shifted to “yellow-blue” (signaling a slowdown) in May.
While the nine business gauges making up the council’s business monitoring system remained largely unchanged last month, the M1B money supply and the stock market price each lost one point and slipped from the healthy “green” rating to “yellow-blue,” the council’s report showed.
The trend-adjusted leading, coincident and lagging indices fell by 0.45 percent, 0.68 percent and 0.08 percent respectively from the previous month, the report showed.
“In light of a persisting slump in global economic and demand growth, a significant rebound is not likely. However, exports might pick up slightly in the fourth quarter during the traditional high season, as newly released consumer electronic products stimulate global demand,” council researcher Wu Ming-hui (吳明蕙) told reporters.
In a bid to preserve their lead over rivals, high-end semiconductor companies have not slowed capital expenditure, she said, adding that the TAIEX’s strong rally this week may contribute to stabilizing consumption and employment.
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