Thu, Aug 27, 2015 - Page 1 News List

Poll shows KMT change would not bring victory

ELECTION BLUES:A Cross-Strait Policy Association official said that even Eric Chu only received support equivalent to the traditional base for pan-blue hopefuls

By Stacy Hsu  /  Staff reporter

Cross-Strait Policy Association deputy director-general Tan Yao-nan, second right, former legislator Lin Cho-shui, second left, and representatives from two polling companies announce in Taipei yesterday the results of an opinion poll on presidential candidates.

Photo: Liu Hsin-de, Taipei Times

Defeating the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in next year’s presidential election would still be unlikely for the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) even if it replaced its candidate, a survey released yesterday by the Cross-Strait Policy Association said.

The survey, conducted on Monday among people aged 20 or older, found that DPP presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) and People First Party (PFP) Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) had 44.1 percent and 17.7 percent support respectively if the KMT is to be represented in the Jan. 16 election by Deputy Legislative Speaker Hung Hsiu-chu (洪秀柱), who garnered 15 percent of support.

If Vice President Wu Den-yih (吳敦義) was the KMT’s candidate instead, an even smaller proportion of respondents — 11.8 percent — said they would support Wu, compared with Tsai’s 48.7 percent and Soong’s 20.2 percent.

However, Tsai’s support rating dropped slightly to 41.2 percent with KMT Chairman Eric Chu (朱立倫) in the race, with 25.5 percent of those polled supporting him.

Despite widespread rumors that the higher echelons of the KMT were itching to remove Hung and nominate someone with a greater chance of winning the presidency, 62.6 percent of respondents were against the idea of switching Hung with Wu, while 43.8 percent opposed the promotion of Chu.

Among those polled, 54.9 percent said the KMT would not switch its candidate, with candidacy registration being set next month, the survey showed.

As for KMT-PFP cooperation, 42.7 percent said the party’s candidates should run as a team.

While nearly 70 percent of respondents said a coalition between the two parties was unlikely, 54.2 percent said they favored the combination of Soong running as president and Hung as his deputy, compared with 18.7 percent who preferred Hung vying for presidency.

The poll collected 1,075 valid responses with a confidence level of 95 percent and a margin of error of 2.99 percentage points.

Association secretary-general Anson Hung (洪耀南) said that Wu, despite his reported interested in running for the top office, was clearly unpopular among pan-blue supporters.

“It is interesting that even Chu, who would be considered one of the KMT’s strongest presidential hopefuls, only received support equivalent to the traditional pan-blue voter base,” Hung said.

Association deputy director-general Tan Yao-nan (譚耀南) said that given Hung’s support rating has decreased by 1.8 percent from 16.8 percent in an Aug. 10 poll, it is likely that her support had yet to hit rock bottom and could continue to drop.

Trend Survey and Research Co general manager Wu Shih-chang (吳世昌) said the results showed Soong’s “honeymoon period” has ended and that the majority of pan-green voters who once identified with the veteran politician have returned to Tsai’s camp.

“Nevertheless, there is a potential crisis ahead on Tsai’s road to the top office,” Wu said.

Wu said a cross analysis of the poll results found that nearly 95 percent of pan-green supporters have expressed support for the DPP chairperson, which explains her stagnant ratings over the past few weeks.

Also, a small proportion of pan-blue supporters have yet to voice their support for a particular candidate, creating additional uncertainty, Wu said.

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