US President Barack Obama’s Asia trip has turned into an early test of whether his global goals and prestige will survive his weakened grip on domestic power, following a painful rebuke from voters.
In India, Indonesia, South Korea and Japan, Obama is trying to pull off the trick of advancing a still ambitious foreign policy, while reducing high unemployment left barely touched by the sluggish economic recovery.
Obama once jetted the globe as the bright new hope of US diplomacy, smashing the war-scarred legacy of his predecessor George W. Bush with soaring appeals to Muslims, allies and foes and getting a Nobel prize for his pains.
Now, after the Democratic midterm election slump, foreign leaders may wonder if the brave new world where diplomatic breakthroughs have been fleeting is a mere interlude in a long Republican era.
They also want to assess whether Obama can regroup before the 2012 presidential election.
Obama’s long flight to India may have offered him a first chance to reflect on the Republican rout, which seized the US House of Representatives and slashed the Democratic US Senate majority.
Despite his defeat, Obama can thank the US Constitution for reserving foreign policy largely for the president, offering a degree of freedom to maneuver he rarely gets on domestic issues.
However, a hostile Congress can frustrate a president’s goals, withhold funding for priorities and hike the political price of a specific foreign policy course.
It is already certain that Republicans will kill Obama’s bid to pass laws cutting greenhouse gas emissions.
In addition, the president ignores the message of the elections at his peril.
“That the economy is the major concern of voters is pretty clear,” said Julian Zelizer, a Princeton University professor and expert on the domestic political impact of US foreign policy.
Obama’s peers, especially at the G20 summit in Seoul and the APEC summit in Yokohama, Japan, may worry that fiscal and monetary policy could be hurt by his diminished domestic clout.
Foreign leaders will want answers on implications for deficit reduction, trade and efforts to stimulate US economic growth, said Daniel Price, a former Bush adviser responsible for G20 issues.
Some analysts believe foreign policy and foreign markets may hold the key to US economic recovery and a political boost for Obama.
Obama made a rueful reference to his plight in Mumbai on Saturday, noting that even “messy” democracy was best, though “sometimes, the election doesn’t turn out as you’d like.”
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