The government yesterday raised its economic growth forecast for this year from the 6.14 percent estimated in May to 8.24 percent, on stronger than expected exports, private investment and consumer spending in the first half of the year, the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) said yesterday.
GDP rose 12.53 percent year-on-year in the second quarter, expanding for the third consecutive quarter, as China and other emerging economies provided a stimulus to the nation’s export-dependent economy.
“We decided to raise the GDP forecast for this year after all the major economic indicators posted better-than-expected showings in the first half,” Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics Minister Shih Su-mei (石素梅) told a news conference.
Exports totaled NT$2.58 trillion (US$80.69 billion) in the April-to-June period, outperforming the agency’s May estimate by 10 percent, Shih said.
Continued global inventory building and the launch of a new generation of products helped fuel demand for Taiwanese-made consumer electronics, the agency said.
Consumer spending improved in the second quarter as retail sales and restaurant earnings picked up 7.97 percent and 6.36 percent respectively from the previous year, the agency said in a statement.
Private capital investment surged 37.48 percent year-on-year in the second quarter as major tech firms expanded capacity to meet growing demand, the statement said, adding that outsourcing by major international manufacturers also helped.
The agency expects the economy to remain healthy for the second half of the year and next year, although it said that growth could slow down.
GDP will expand 6.9 percent year-on-year in this quarter and slow to growth of 1.37 percent in the fourth quarter, due to a higher comparison base, Statistics Bureau Director Tsai Hung-kun (蔡鴻坤) said, adding that the economy should grow 4.64 percent next year.
Private consumption, which rose 3.06 percent in the second quarter, is expected to advance 3.22 percent and 0.57 percent in the third and fourth quarters respectively, the agency said.
The agency revised its inflation forecast down from the 1.4 percent estimated in May to 1.23 percent. Inflation is expected to stay at a modest 1.43 percent for next year, it said.
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