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Breakthroughs unlikely on Obama’s China trip: expert

While security in the Taiwan Strait will be a major issue on US President Barack Obama’s agenda when he meets Chinese President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) in Beijing later this month, there are unlikely to be any breakthroughs or major developments, a Washington conference was told on Thursday.

No issues will be resolved, but there could be a statement designed to “dampen down concerns” and reassure the region that the countries concerned are on the same wavelength in terms of objectives and approaches, Chinese security and foreign policy expert Michael Swaine said.

Speaking at a Carnegie Endowment conference entitled “Mr Obama Goes to Asia: Defining a Regional Policy,” Swaine went out of his way to allay speculation that anything would happen to “move the ball down the field.”

Swaine, a senior associate in the Carnegie China Program who has been described as one of the most prominent US analysts in Chinese security studies, said that fundamental differences and distrust remained between Washington and Beijing on the subject of arms sales to Taiwan.

“The Chinese have strong resistance to any further sale of significant arms to Taiwan,” he said.

“The issue of arms sales is continually being kicked down the road by the US administration because it does not want to face the question of making a basic decision on this issue at this particular time for a whole host of reasons,” Swaine said.

Even more than in other areas, he said, the Asia trip would result in just “pro forma statements” on the Taiwan situation.

Obama’s eight-day trip starts on Thursday when he flies to Japan, where he will have two meetings with Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama. Obama will then fly to Singapore to attend the annual APEC meeting from Friday to Sunday.

From Singapore, Obama will fly to China, where he will visit Beijing and Shanghai from next Sunday to Nov. 18. While in China, Obama and Hu will meet to discuss regional and world issues including security, nuclear nonproliferation, energy and climate change.

Obama’s final stop will be in South Korea on Nov. 18 and Nov. 19. There he and South Korean President Lee Myung-bak will have their third face-to-face meeting.

Swaine said that while in China Obama would say that he was “very happy” with the improvement in cross-strait relations that has occurred since the government of President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) came to power.

He added that he did not expect “ any strong repetition of support” for the so-called confidence building measures that have been pushed by US officials in the past.

But he said there could be a statement from Obama urging Beijing to “take further initiatives.”

Another China expert at the conference said later — on condition that he not be quoted by name — that it was possible, but by no means certain, that Obama would urge Hu to reduce the number of missiles directed at Taiwan.
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