The US is now tilting toward Pakistan's army elite and moderate forces at the expense of Pakistani General President Pervez Musharraf in a high-stakes move to save a key ally in the "war on terror," analysts said.
The analysts have sensed a US policy shift in the last few days that appears to have only been reinforced with the visit to Islamabad by US Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte, who warned Musharraf on Saturday that Washington would review its military aid to Pakistan unless he lifts the emergency rule imposed on Nov. 3.
Negroponte, the most senior US official to visit since Musharraf declared emergency rule, urged him to call off the measures, release all political detainees, lift curbs on the media and ensure free elections.
PHOTO: EPA
If military aid is put under review, "this is a pleasant surprise for me. The United States had supported Musharraf rather than the army as an institution," said Hassan Abbas, an analyst at Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government.
"Negroponte must have said this after a lot of analysis substantiating that Musharraf's days are over and that the way Musharraf is trying to hang onto power, this will potentially create a rift within the army," Abbas said.
The army, run by a professional pro-Western elite, is key to the US-led "war on terrorism," which has seen setbacks in Pakistan, as Taliban and al-Qaida militants make inroads in northwestern areas bordering Afghanistan.
A threat to cut off military aid, Abbas said, would further focus minds among a military elite that relies on the US for training officers and supplying it with heavy weaponry such as fighter aircraft.
Military circles in Pakistan have already told Abbas there is "increasing unrest" within the army elite who feel Musharraf has sullied not only their popular image but distracted them from their security tasks.
Security analyst Andrew Koch also said there were signs that the military had had enough of politics.
Wendy Chamberlin, the US ambassador to Pakistan from 2001 to 2002 who is now president of the Middle East Institute in Washington, said on Thursday there are signs Washington is cooling toward Musharraf.
The Los Angeles Times reported yesterday that Pentagon officials were already moving to overhaul the system of US military aid to Pakistan, aiming to pay Islamabad for achieving specific objectives rather than reimbursing it for money it says it has spent.
Abbas said Musharraf's deputy in the army, the US-trained General Ashfaq Kiyani whom Negroponte met, could succeed him as head of the army and steer Pakistan out of its crisis.
Under Kiyani, the Pakistani army would remain influential but retreat behind the political scene, lift martial law and back general elections in which former prime minister Benazir Bhutto or another political leader could become prime minister, he said.
Meanwhile, the New York Times on Saturday reported that Washington is implementing a top-secret program designed to help Pakistan safeguard its nuclear weapons as unrest spreads across the country.
Citing unnamed current and former senior government officials, the newspaper said the administration of US President George W. Bush has spent almost US$100 million on the program over the past six years.
The Times said the nuclear security program for Pakistan included delivery of helicopters, night-vision goggles and nuclear detection equipment needed to secure nuclear materials, warheads and laboratories.
The program also paid for the training of Pakistani personnel in the US and the construction of a nuclear security training center in Pakistan, the report said.
RETHINK? The defense ministry and Navy Command Headquarters could take over the indigenous submarine project and change its production timeline, a source said Admiral Huang Shu-kuang’s (黃曙光) resignation as head of the Indigenous Submarine Program and as a member of the National Security Council could affect the production of submarines, a source said yesterday. Huang in a statement last night said he had decided to resign due to national security concerns while expressing the hope that it would put a stop to political wrangling that only undermines the advancement of the nation’s defense capabilities. Taiwan People’s Party Legislator Vivian Huang (黃珊珊) yesterday said that the admiral, her older brother, felt it was time for him to step down and that he had completed what he
Taiwan has experienced its most significant improvement in the QS World University Rankings by Subject, data provided on Sunday by international higher education analyst Quacquarelli Symonds (QS) showed. Compared with last year’s edition of the rankings, which measure academic excellence and influence, Taiwanese universities made great improvements in the H Index metric, which evaluates research productivity and its impact, with a notable 30 percent increase overall, QS said. Taiwanese universities also made notable progress in the Citations per Paper metric, which measures the impact of research, achieving a 13 percent increase. Taiwanese universities gained 10 percent in Academic Reputation, but declined 18 percent
CHINA REACTS: The patrol and reconnaissance plane ‘transited the Taiwan Strait in international airspace,’ the 7th Fleet said, while Taipei said it saw nothing unusual The US 7th Fleet yesterday said that a US Navy P-8A Poseidon flew through the Taiwan Strait, a day after US and Chinese defense heads held their first talks since November 2022 in an effort to reduce regional tensions. The patrol and reconnaissance plane “transited the Taiwan Strait in international airspace,” the 7th Fleet said in a news release. “By operating within the Taiwan Strait in accordance with international law, the United States upholds the navigational rights and freedoms of all nations.” In a separate statement, the Ministry of National Defense said that it monitored nearby waters and airspace as the aircraft
UNDER DISCUSSION: The combatant command would integrate fast attack boat and anti-ship missile groups to defend waters closest to the coastline, a source said The military could establish a new combatant command as early as 2026, which would be tasked with defending Taiwan’s territorial waters 24 nautical miles (44.4km) from the nation’s coastline, a source familiar with the matter said yesterday. The new command, which would fall under the Naval Command Headquarters, would be led by a vice admiral and integrate existing fast attack boat and anti-ship missile groups, along with the Naval Maritime Surveillance and Reconnaissance Command, said the source, who asked to remain anonymous. It could be launched by 2026, but details are being discussed and no final timetable has been announced, the source