Bomb deaths have gone down 30 percent in Baghdad since the US-led security crackdown began a month ago. Execution-style slayings are down by nearly half.
The once frequent sound of weapons has been reduced to episodic, and downtown shoppers have returned to outdoor markets -- favored targets of car bombers.
There are signs of progress in the campaign to restore order in Iraq, starting with its capital city.
But while many Iraqis are encouraged, they remain skeptical about how long the relative calm will last. Each bombing renews fears that the horror is returning. Shiite militias and Sunni insurgents are still around, perhaps just lying low or hiding outside the city until the operation is over.
US military officials, burned before by overly optimistic forecasts, have been cautious about declaring the operation a success. Another reason it seems premature: only two of the five US brigades earmarked for the mission are in the streets and the full complement of US reinforcements is not scheduled to arrive until late May.
US officials say that key to the operation's long-term success is the willingness of Iraq's sectarian and ethnic political parties to strike a power and money-sharing deal. That remains elusive -- a proposal for governing the country's main source of income -- oil -- is bogged down in parliamentary squabbling.
Nevertheless, there are encouraging signs.
Gone are the "illegal checkpoints," where Shiite and Sunni gunmen stopped cars and hauled away members of the rival sect -- often to a gruesome torture and death.
The rattle of automatic weapons fire or the rumble of distant roadside bombs comes less frequently. Traffic is beginning to return to the city's once vacant streets.
"People are very optimistic because they sense a development. The level of sectarian violence in streets and areas has decreased," said a 50-year-old Shiite, who gave his name only as Abu Abbas, or "father of Abbas."
"The activities of the militias have also decreased. The car bombs and the suicide attacks are the only things left, while other kinds of violence have decreased," he said.
In the months before the security operation began on Feb. 14, police were finding dozens of bodies each day in the capital -- victims of Sunni and Shiite death squads. Last December, more than 200 bodies were found each week -- with the figure spiking above 300 in some weeks, according to police reports.
Since the crackdown began, weekly totals have dropped to about 80 -- hardly an acceptable figure but clearly a sign that death squads are no longer as active as they were in the final months of last year.
Bombings too have decreased in the city, presumably because of US and Iraqi success in finding weapons caches and the increase in government checkpoints in the streets that make it tougher to deliver the bombs.
In the 27 days leading up to the operation, 528 people were killed in bombings around the capital, according to figures. In the first 27 days of the operation, the bombing death toll stood at 370 -- a drop of about 30 percent.
US military combat deaths have also declined, according to a count. Twenty-four members of the military were killed in Baghdad from Feb. 14 through Wednesday, compared with 29 from Jan. 13 through Feb. 13. Overall nationwide, there were 68 US military deaths from Feb. 14 through Wednesday, compared with 112 from Jan. 13 through Feb. 13.
Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, a Shiite, made a show of confidence on Tuesday by traveling out of Baghdad for meetings with Sunni tribal leaders and government officials in Ramadi, a stronghold for Sunni insurgents.
Despite the encouraging signs, chief military spokesman Major General William Caldwell cautioned that "high-profile" car bombings, which intensified last month, remain a serious concern.
True success will be when Iraqis themselves begin to feel safe and gain confidence in their government and security forces. Only then can the economy, long on its heels and with unemployment estimated between 25 and 40 percent, rebound and start providing jobs and a future for Baghdad's people.
Much of the relative calm may be a result of a decision by Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr to remove his armed militiamen, known as the Mehdi Army, from the streets.
US troops rolled into the Mehdi stronghold of Sadr City on March 4 without firing a shot -- a radical change from street battles there in 2004.
Some Mehdi Army fighters may have left the city. But Iraqis who live in Shiite neighborhoods say many others are still around.
Sunni militants remain in some areas of the city, although last year's sectarian bloodletting drove many Sunnis from their traditional neighborhoods, depriving extremists of a support network.
Sunni militants, meanwhile, are believed to have withdrawn to surrounding areas such as Diyala Province where they have a safe haven.
The US command sent an extra 700 soldiers on Tuesday to protect the highways leading into the capital from there.
If militants from both sects are indeed lying low, that suggests they may have adopted a strategy of waiting until the security operation is over, then re-emerging to fight each other for control of the capital.
RETHINK? The defense ministry and Navy Command Headquarters could take over the indigenous submarine project and change its production timeline, a source said Admiral Huang Shu-kuang’s (黃曙光) resignation as head of the Indigenous Submarine Program and as a member of the National Security Council could affect the production of submarines, a source said yesterday. Huang in a statement last night said he had decided to resign due to national security concerns while expressing the hope that it would put a stop to political wrangling that only undermines the advancement of the nation’s defense capabilities. Taiwan People’s Party Legislator Vivian Huang (黃珊珊) yesterday said that the admiral, her older brother, felt it was time for him to step down and that he had completed what he
Taiwan has experienced its most significant improvement in the QS World University Rankings by Subject, data provided on Sunday by international higher education analyst Quacquarelli Symonds (QS) showed. Compared with last year’s edition of the rankings, which measure academic excellence and influence, Taiwanese universities made great improvements in the H Index metric, which evaluates research productivity and its impact, with a notable 30 percent increase overall, QS said. Taiwanese universities also made notable progress in the Citations per Paper metric, which measures the impact of research, achieving a 13 percent increase. Taiwanese universities gained 10 percent in Academic Reputation, but declined 18 percent
UNDER DISCUSSION: The combatant command would integrate fast attack boat and anti-ship missile groups to defend waters closest to the coastline, a source said The military could establish a new combatant command as early as 2026, which would be tasked with defending Taiwan’s territorial waters 24 nautical miles (44.4km) from the nation’s coastline, a source familiar with the matter said yesterday. The new command, which would fall under the Naval Command Headquarters, would be led by a vice admiral and integrate existing fast attack boat and anti-ship missile groups, along with the Naval Maritime Surveillance and Reconnaissance Command, said the source, who asked to remain anonymous. It could be launched by 2026, but details are being discussed and no final timetable has been announced, the source
CHINA REACTS: The patrol and reconnaissance plane ‘transited the Taiwan Strait in international airspace,’ the 7th Fleet said, while Taipei said it saw nothing unusual The US 7th Fleet yesterday said that a US Navy P-8A Poseidon flew through the Taiwan Strait, a day after US and Chinese defense heads held their first talks since November 2022 in an effort to reduce regional tensions. The patrol and reconnaissance plane “transited the Taiwan Strait in international airspace,” the 7th Fleet said in a news release. “By operating within the Taiwan Strait in accordance with international law, the United States upholds the navigational rights and freedoms of all nations.” In a separate statement, the Ministry of National Defense said that it monitored nearby waters and airspace as the aircraft