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Invasion possible by 2010, Chen says

"China is still trying to localize, marginalize and belittle Taiwan. It still refuses to recognise the sovereignty of the legitimate government of Taiwan."

President Chen Shui-bian

Agencies, Koror, Palau and Washington

President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) said on Tuesday that China would have the capability to launch a "large-scale" invasion of Taiwan by 2010, but added Taiwan was capable of fighting back.

In an interview with Reuters and a South Pacific island magazine, Chen added that by 2015 China would have the means to win a "decisive battle" over Taiwan.

"China has never given up its intention to invade Taiwan, to use force against Taiwan," Chen said.

He added that China would probably not strike since Taiwan was prepared to fight back, even without US assistance.

"Of course if China is not reasonable, we have adequate preparations," Chen said.

"China must respect that the Republic of China actually exists," Chen said. "It is a fact that our country exists and that Taiwan is a sovereign nation. This is the status quo."

"To our regret, China is still trying to localize, marginalize and belittle Taiwan. It still refuses to recognise the sovereignty of the legitimate government of Taiwan," he said, blasting China for preventing Taiwan from joining the UN and other international organizations.

Later yesterday, during a stopover in Guam on the way back to Taipei last night, Chen stressed that cross-strait disputes can only be resolved peacefully through dialogue.

Noting China's continuous deployment of missiles aimed at Taiwan along its eastern coast, Chen said such action proves China continued threats against Taiwan.

"Taiwan, being a democracy, will not be the troublemaker," Chen was quoted as saying while attending a banquet with local Taiwanese expatriates.

Meanwhile, Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) Chairman Joseph Wu (吳釗燮) urged the US to strongly remind Beijing against using any military force against Taiwan, saying China's defense buildup was casting a huge shadow over Taiwan.

Wu said that Beijing's military buildup opposite the island was a critical concern to Taipei but that Washington was not paying close attention to it due to the "war on terror" and other distractions.

"The United States has to continuously make it very clear to China never to use force against Taiwan," Wu said on a visit to Washington on Tuesday.

"We hope that kind of point can be stressed in a more clear, more convincing and more forceful way to the Chinese leaders so that they don't threaten Taiwan the way they do right now," he said.

China has deployed 784 ballistic and 36 cruise missiles aimed at Taiwan, Chen has said recently, adding that the number of missiles was rising at the rate of 120 per year.

These could paralyze Taiwan's communications and transportation and command centers in a 10-hour bombardment, Taiwan's defense ministry says.

A Pentagon report has said that China is building up its military at a pace that is tipping the balance against Taiwan and could pose a credible threat to other armies in the region.

"We cannot afford a situation where the Chinese side think that they can take full advantage of Taiwan's weaknesses ... and they can take Taiwan over," Wu warned at a Washington forum. "They might do it."

"Of course, as decision makers in Taiwan, we don't want to see that kind of thing happen and I think it is the same calculation on the part of the Bush administration," he said.

Wu also emphasized the need for Taiwan to beef up its military might.

Taiwan's defense capability should "continue to be built up so that there is no opportunity for the Chinese side to think that they can take Taiwan over in a very short period of time," he said.

Wu's visit came amid reports that Chinese military officials had pressed the Bush administration and the Pentagon to halt arms sales to Taiwan.

The Washington Times reported last week that President Bush had been advised by his security staff to deny new sales of F-16 jets to Taiwan to avoid upsetting China.

It would also signal disapproval with Taipei for its failure to procure US submarines, surveillance aircraft and missile defenses offered for sale since 2001, the report said.

Taiwan's government confirmed recently that it planned to buy up to 66 new F-16C/D models in a bid to counter China's continued arms build-up. The deal was estimated to be worth US$3.1 billion.

Additional reporting by Ko Shu-ling
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