A poll released by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) yesterday indicated that President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) was running neck and neck with his challenger from the pan-blue alliance.
The DPP's latest presidential election opinion poll showed that Chen's support stood at 34.1 percent while his main challenger, Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairman Lien Chan (連戰), netted support at 33.6 percent.
"Chen's 0.5 percent lead fell within the margin of error, indicating that the two parties are neck and neck," said Chen Chun-lin (陳俊麟), director of the DPP's public opinion survey center.
The survey interviewed voters from six regions around the island beginning Oct. 22 and collected 16,804 valid replies.
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 0.77 percent, the DPP said.
The poll found that 41.3 percent of the respondents said they prefer to see Chen re-elected while 38.9 percent of the interviewed said that they expected a transition of power in the election.
Lien and People First Party (PFP) Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) decided to team up on a joint presidential ticket at the behest of the pan-blue alliance, while Chen is expected to announce his running mate this week.
The DPP survey found that Chen enjoyed a lead in the southern countries of Yunlin, Chiayi, Tainan, Kaohsiung and Pingtung as well as Kaohsiung City, while he lagged elsewhere.
Chen faces a tough battle in the north, including the counties of Taoyuan, Hsinchu and Miaoli which have large Hakka populations, said Chen Chun-lin.
"But the results also showed that Chen's support rate among Hakka people around the island has risen a lot. The president received endorsement from 32 percent of Hakka voters, only 8 percent short of the Lien-Soong ticket," the poll center director said.
"The narrowing of the gap from 17 percent to 8 percent is a stimulus for the DPP and for me," said DPP Deputy Secretary General Lee Ying-yuan (李應元).
"The DPP knows that the battle in the northern counties of Taoyuan, Hsinchu and Miaoli will be the toughest as regards winning the next presidential election. That's why we decided to hold our first rally for the re-election tomorrow in Hsinchu," Lee told the news conference yesterday.
In terms of age, the poll indicated that Chen was less popular than Lien only in the 30-39 voter group, while leading or even in other age groups.
The last DPP poll in July concluded that Chen's support rating among independent or swing voters lagged Lien's by 3.1 percent.
The KMT disputed the poll by presenting their own finding that Lien was leading Chen by at least 10 percent, according to a recent survey.
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