The Ministry of National Defense warned yesterday that China stands a chance of attacking after 2008 unless Taiwan continues to strengthen its defensive capabilities to counter the threat.
It is also most likely that China will carry on intimidating this country before 2008, according to a report by the ministry made available to lawmakers along with the ministry's defense budget proposal for next year.
"After 2008, if our defense capabilities are not sufficiently boosted, the military imbalance will create a favorable condition for China to paralyze us militarily and launch an attack," the report said.
An invasion will be possible if the international situation becomes unfavorable to Taiwan or when the hawks in the Chinese military get the upper hand, it said.
Political instability in China could also prompt an attack, it said.
But the ministry saw slim chance for a drastic political change in China during the term of Chinese President Hu Jintao (
The report said as of the end last year, the People's Liberation Army totalled some 2.3 million troops, with 64 percent of them being ground forces.
Six percent are artillery troops, which have deployed more than 400 ballistic missiles aimed Taiwan, it said.
Meanwhile, the Chinese air force has some 3,000 fighters, one-third of which are deployed within 1,111km of Taiwan.
Last month, the Pentagon also warned in its annual report to the US Congress that China's military modernizations were giving Beijing the ability to launch a surprise attack on Taiwan that would keep US forces in the western Pacific at bay.
The US said Beijing was annually adding 75 short-range missiles to its batteries aimed at Taiwan and was acquiring or developing weapons and tactics aimed at countering technologically superior US forces.
In its budget proposal, the ministry planned to spend NT$265 billion (US$7.75 billion) next year, up NT$7.8 billion from this year.
Premier Yu Shyi-kun reportedly guaranteed the US last year that the government would invest NT$700 billion in modern weaponry in the 10 years beginning 2006.
Chinese-language media reports have said Taiwan is prepared to push that schedule up by one year and begin its own military buildup in 2005.
On the military's shopping list are eight conventional submarines, long-range early warning radar systems and Patriot PAC-3 anti-missile systems.
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