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Blair's difficulties starting to affect his party's ratings

British Prime Minister Tony Blair's personal unpopularity is seriously damaging Labour's poll rating for the first time, according to the results of this month's Guardian/ICM opinion poll.

The June ICM survey shows that the prime minister's popularity has fallen again, and Labour's lead over the Conservatives has plunged from 12 points last month to only four points now -- its lowest level since the petrol crisis two and a half years ago.

Last fortnight's fudged euro decision, the botched reshuffle and the row over taxes have hit Labour. Its share of the vote is down by three percentage points on the month, to 38 percent, while the Tories are up by five points, at 34 percent. The government's four-point lead is its smallest on the Guardian/ICM poll since 2000.

The poll also shows that the government's "not yet" statement on the single currency has proved disastrous for the pro-euro camp, and support for joining the eurozone has fallen to its lowest level since March 2001. According to the monthly ICM/Goldman Sachs tracker poll, support for the euro fell by nine percentage points to 21 percent, after the statement by Blair and the Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown.

The five-point boost in Tory fortunes in the ICM's monthly voting intentions will fuel the feeling that the Conservatives are on a roll. But the ICM six monthly rolling averages for January to June this year suggest that it is instead the Liberal Democrats who are squeezing Labour.

The 34 percent share of the vote recorded this month by the Tories is only one point more than their performance at the last general election.

The six monthly figures give Labour an average 40 percent share of the vote this year -- its worst showing since 1993. The Conservatives are on 31 percent -- unchanged from last year -- and the Lib Dems on 22 percent, their best showing since 1993.

There are many more Tory/Liberal Democrat marginal seats than Lib Dem/Labour ones, so it is not necessarily good news for the Tories.

The public's verdict on the performance of the party leaders underlines this point. Blair's overall popularity has fallen again in the past month from a net rating of minus eight points in May to minus 13 points now. Even more are unhappy with the job he is doing now than those that are happy.

The voters also mark down his domestic record -- at minus 27 -- compared with his performance on international and European issues, where he has a rating of minus 15. Blair does, however, retain a strong loyal following among Labour voters, who still give him a plus 51 rating.

The same cannot be said of Iain Duncan Smith. Despite the Tories' five-point bounce in the ICM poll this month, his personal rating has continued to deteriorate and, at minus 20, is worse than Blair's.

He does not even have the confidence of Tory voters, who give him a minus two rating.

Charles Kennedy remains the only leader with a positive approval rating, at plus 18.

The poll shows that 48 percent of people believe the Iraq war was justified, compared with 40 percent who say it should not have happened. Among Labour voters, 61 percent believe the war was justified.

The voters are far less exercised about Blair's decision to replace the office of the lord chancellor. A total of 65 percent of voters said they had no opinion on the matter.
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