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UK to deliver list of final demands to Iraq

Britain and the US are to agree to a set of disarmament "trip-points" detailing specific weapons in Saddam Hussein's arsenal that need to be destroyed or accounted for by March 17 to prevent war.

With the international community appearing fundamentally split on whether the Iraqi dictator should be given more time to comply with resolution 1441, British officials told The Observer newspaper in London that the targets would be based on chief inspector Hans Blix's report to the UN Security Council this weekend, which said that there were still a large number of outstanding disarmament issues.

"What we are going to do is give him a clear ultimatum," said a senior Downing Street source. "What we want to do in the next few days is express clearly what he has to do."

The office of Prime Minister Tony Blair, Washington's closest ally, said that the process of fortnightly reports by Blix had run its course and that it was now time for the Security Council to come to a decision on whether to act.

"We believe the Blix process is now complete," the prime minister's official spokesman said. `There is not full and immediate compliance [by Iraq].

"We want to emphasize that this can still be resolved peacefully if Saddam Hussein decides to disarm. He is only going to make that decision if he believes that this time it is really different."

On Saturday, France made it clear it would not support the resolution and made an official appeal for a summit of world leaders to discuss the looming conflict. Russia also said it was opposed to any resolution that "authorized war."

The position of these two permanent members of the Security Council, which both have the power of the veto, is supported by Germany and Syria. "The ultimatum resolution is not acceptable and therefore will not be accepted by France," a spokesman for President Jacques Chirac said. Britain's and America's position was supported yesterday by Spain and Bulgaria.

The British and US "trip points" will be based on a draft of Blix's UN report circulated yesterday. It says that Iraq's self-built al-Hussein missile system and 50 Scud B warheads are not accounted for and suggests that "these items may have been retained for a proscribed missile force."

The UN report also says that Iraq had illegally imported 131 Volga engines for its al-Samoud 2 missile system and that UNMOVIC, the UN inspections team, had found 231 engines and documentation for a further 150.

The Blix analysis alleges there are 550 mustard gas shells unaccounted for and that 350 R-400 bombs, which are capable of carrying chemical and biological weapons, are also outstanding.

"Photographic evidence contradicts Iraqi claims that all R-400 [marked as filled with botulinum toxin and anthrax] were destroyed in July or August 2001," said an analysis of the Blix report by Downing Street.

"Iraq has admitted that there are a further 6,500 chemical weapons now unaccounted for." The Government hopes that the clear targets, which will be provided in a statement to run alongside the new resolution, will show what Saddam has to do to avoid war.

Diplomatic sources said that they hoped that the list of defined targets and the final deadline of 17 March would probably be enough to persuade enough members of the Security Council to back the second resolution.

A resolution in the 15-member UN Security Council needs a minimum of nine votes for adoption and there must be no veto by any of the five permanent members: the US, Britain, France, Russia and China.

Secretary of State Colin Powell said the US had a "strong chance" of getting nine or 10 states in the 15-member Council to vote for the resolution while Blair lobbied foreign leaders by phone yesterday, among them Chinese President Jiang Zemin, China's official media said.

But French Foreign Minister Dominique de Villepin was embarking on a whistle-stop tour of the "swing voters" Guinea, Cameroon and Angola in the hope of persuading them to reject it.

It is likely that the resolution will be voted on by the middle of this week. If Britain and America succeed in getting the nine votes needed to pass the resolution then Saddam would have until 17 March to comply. If he did not do so military conflict would begin soon after.

A defeat of the resolution alone would be unlikely to avert war. Washington has repeatedly said it will lead a "coalition of the willing" against Iraq without UN approval if necessary, and more than 200,000 US and British troops have massed in the region, ready to strike.

But UN authorization would be of huge value to governments of US allies in placating public misgivings -- especially in Britain.

Most Britons would support war if it had UN backing but only 15 percent would do so without, a poll indicated yesterday. Newspapers said Blair faced a huge anti-war revolt among members of parliament in his Labour Party.

One government aide has resigned and more are said to be threatening to do the same.

US and British officials have said even a vetoed majority would be a moral victory for them.

US promises of economic aid to impoverished swing vote states may yet prove more tempting than political argument.

Bush may dispatch his national security adviser, Condoleezza Rice, to Russia to lobby President Vladimir Putin in person, and Secretary of State Colin Powell could also be called upon to visit leaders of countries with swing votes.

Analysts say US commanders may delay war until April 1 as Turkey's reluctance to be a conduit for Western forces means they must plan another way to occupy northern Iraq -- and because early April offers a moonless sky for aerial bombing.
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