The UN's nuclear inspectors will deliver a serious blow tomorrow to Washington's case for going to war with Iraq, telling the world they have found nothing and giving Saddam Hussein good grades for cooperation.
Just as damaging to the US position will be the insistence to the UN Security Council by the chief nuclear inspector, Mohamed ElBaradei, that his team needs several more months to complete its work and that some important testing equipment has only just arrived in the country.
"Their report card will be a `B,'" said Mark Gwozdecky, a spokesman for the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which is carrying out the nuclear inspections. "We've been getting where and when we want to get, and we've been generally successful in getting what we need."
Another IAEA official, Melissa Fleming, said that 16 soil samples analyzed for radiation had so far proved negative, but added that there were more samples to be taken and that equipment to test for airborne gamma radiation had only just arrived in Iraq.
The IAEA's assessment in effect knocks away half of the platform upon which the US is hoping to build its case against Saddam Hussein when the Security Council meets tomorrow. The other half was also looking shaky on Thursday.
Hans Blix, who is in charge of biological, chemical and missile inspections and who will also present a report, has also called for more time. According to one well-placed UN official, Blix's inspectors are demanding "several more months" to pursue their operations in Iraq. "Nobody can imagine the inspectors could do a proper job in eight weeks," the official said.
However, Blix has been ambivalent about Iraqi cooperation, pointing out Baghdad's objection to his inspectors using U2 spy planes to search Iraq for banned weapons. Blix is also unhappy with the refusal of Iraqi scientists to undergo interviews without a government minder present.
The Pentagon has alleged that the scientists and their families are being threatened with execution if they cooperate with the inspectors.
In the battle for public perceptions, the George W. Bush administration has been conducting an intense media campaign in an attempt to ensure the headlines from tomorrow's crucial reports by the weapons inspectors will portray Iraq as having failed to disarm.
If the coverage emphasizes Baghdad's cooperation and the absence of a "smoking gun," the administration will have a harder task convincing the rest of the world and the US public that the inspections should be cut short to pave the way for war.
Nearly 70 percent of Americans questioned recently said the inspectors should have months to finish their work. "Is the glass half full or half empty. That will be the question on Monday," said a diplomat from one of the Security Council member nations.
An administration official said yesterday that if the inspectors produce new evidence of clandestine Iraqi attempts to produce weapons of mass destruction, the administration would consider giving them more time. The implication was that if the inspectors have little to declare tomorrow, the US will reject their work as pointless.
In that case, the Bush administration will be forced to rely on presenting its own intelligence to justify going to war. John Bolton, US undersecretary of state, said Washington had "very convincing" evidence of an extensive Iraqi program for the production of banned weapons which it will reveal "at an appropriate time."
RSS