Tue, Dec 17, 2002 - Page 1 News List

Report forecasts a more assertive Beijing by 2010

CLOCK TICKING China's rising economic power could result in problems for Taiwan within the next eight years, a study by the government says

By Ko Shu-Ling  /  STAFF REPORTER

By 2010, China might have set its own timetable for reunification with Taiwan and may even have employed direct military threats, according to a study to be released by the Cabinet's Research, Development and Evaluation Commission today.

According to the 20-page report, internal pressures in China might cause it to become aggressive with its neighbors as it becomes one of the world's superpowers.

This aggression could include attempts to expand its boundaries, the report says.

"Taiwan shouldn't rule out the possibility that China will set the timetable to unify with -- or stage military intimidation against -- Taiwan by 2010," the study says.

Taiwan should therefore streng-then and elevate the functions of the National Security Council.

"The Presidential Office and the Executive Yuan should work together to integrate the resources and elevate the functions of agencies responsible for public safety in response to China's increasing threat," the report says.

To raise global awareness of the cross-strait situation, the report says that Taiwan should step up its efforts to promote the idea that peace in the Taiwan Strait is beneficial to peace in the rest of East Asia.

The government should also earmark more money for intelligence agencies to buy state-of-art intelligence gathering equipment, to train intelligence personnel and to cooperate with other countries, the report recommends.

According to the report, Taiwan's national security strategy and foreign diplomacy in 2010 will be influenced by various factors, both international and domestic.

"US President George W. Bush's re-election bid in 2004 and China's new leadership lineup in 2007 will have an impact on Taiwan-US relations," the report says.

"Taiwan's legislative and presidential elections in 2004 will also affect the formulation of foreign policy here," it says.

However, Taiwan can remain stable if the number of its political allies remains steady and the public continues to support the government's bid to join international organizations.

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