The Pentagon is expected to release a report soon on China's military threat that is expected to raise concerns over the buildup of missiles and naval forces across the Taiwan Strait, US defense officials tell the Taipei Times.
The report also concludes that the buildup is aimed at undermining Taiwan's democratic government, officials say.
The report, originally scheduled to be released more than a year ago, will update an assessment made by the Bill Clinton administration in 2000.
The assessment will mark US President George W. Bush's administration's first in-depth public discussion of China's military power and strategy and its first detailed analysis of the threat to Taiwan.
Observers say the report might also provide clues to the Bush administration's thinking on new weapons sales to Taiwan that are needed to counter China's growing military threat.
The biggest change since 2000, according to the report, is the num-ber of short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) China has aimed at Taiwan. In 2000, the number was about 100. But the new report puts the figure at between 300 and 400.
In addition, the assessment predicts that the number of SRBMs deployed in Fujian and neighboring provinces will rise to 600 over the next few years, according to Pentagon officials.
These missiles, US officials believe, are weapons of terror, in that they are not aimed at specific targets but are intended to land indiscriminately over a wide area -- including civilian areas -- causing uncertainty, fear and panic among Taiwan's public.
By contrast, other missiles, such as the US-made Tomahawk, are guided by satellite to hit specific targets and avoid civilian populations.
The emphasis on ballistic missiles gives US policy-makers a clue to China's strategy, officials say.
Their deployment is meant to undermine Taiwan's government and its will to fight through scare tactics, the officials say.
Since the 2000 report was issued, China's naval power in the Strait has also grown, the new report says. In the last two years, China has acquired two Sovre-menny-class destroyers from Russia and has ordered two more.
The Pentagon is particularly concerned about these vessels, as they are equipped with sophisticated SS-N-22 Sunburn missiles aimed at denying the US fleet access to the Strait should China mount an attack on Taiwan.
The ships and their armament are also seen by the Pentagon as intended to deny Taiwan access to sea lanes and to deny ships access to Taiwanese ports.
In addition to the acquisition of Russian surface vessels, China has recently begun talks with Moscow on the US$1.6 billion purchase of eight more Kilo-class submarines, in addition to four such subs China already possesses.
The subs are said to be equipped with advanced long-range anti-ship missiles, which would enhance China's ability to blockade the Taiwan Strait. It is not known whether the report includes that recent development or has an analysis of its impact.
The report, which the administration is required to present to Congress annually under the fiscal year 2000 Defense Department authorization law, was originally scheduled to be released last June.
But after the EP-3 incident Sino-US relations fell into a crisis. This forced a reassessment of Washington's China policies and interrupted bilateral military ties, delaying the report for the first time.
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