The Weather Forecasting Center of the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) reported yesterday that this year's monsoon is expected to bring "normal" levels of rainfall, but whether this will end Taiwan's drought will depend on factors other than mere precipitation.
"This may succeed to some extent in relieving the current drought. We cannot say whether it will end the drought," CWB official Lin Shiou-wen (林秀雯) told the Taipei Times. Lin said that besides the amount of rainfall, factors such as where the rain falls, the way in which water is distributed, and water conservation measures are all crucial determinants as to whether the drought will end.
The deputy director of the Weather Forecasting Center, Daniel Wu (
Wu said that although Taiwan has experienced low levels of rainfall between January and April due to global warming and the ongoing influence of a high-pressure system from the Pacific Ocean -- a regular feature, but one whose influence has been particularly strong this year -- the monsoon would arrive on time in mid-May, bringing rain to Taiwan.
"The high-pressure system from the Pacific Ocean has blocked the fronts that usually bring rainfall to the island since early this year. With the high-pressure system's withdrawal from mid-May, rainfall is to be expected," Wu said.
The monsoon affects Taiwan every year from early May to the end of June. Heavy rains brought by the monsoon front are an important water source for the nation. According to the CWB, in central and southern Taiwan, rainfall brought by the monsoon constitutes some 35 percent of annual precipitation.
Wu stressed, however, that since Taiwan has had too little rainfall since January and the rainfall in the coming monsoon is only expected to reach the lower end of the normal range, water rationing may have to continue and residents should still conserve water.
Wu said that the lack of rainfall this year was not the result of El Nino, a disruption of the ocean-atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific, caused by a rise in water temperature. He said that there has been no major change in such water temperature.
"Even though some experts have said that El Nino might have an influence this year, I believe this will probably happen in autumn or winter and the influence will be mild," Wu said.
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