Jiang, heir might visit Washington

Both Chinese President Jiang Zemin (江澤民) and his heir-apparent Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) are expected to visit Washington in the next six months, underscoring a prolonged improvement in relations that is now leading to a higher level of mutual visits, a leading US China scholar said.

Hu has accepted an invitation from his official counterpart, US Vice President Dick Cheney, to visit in the spring, and Jiang is expected to visit Washington in August, David Shambaugh, the director of the China Policy Program at George Washington University, told a conference dealing with President George W. Bush's trip to Beijing next week.

There was no official confirmation of the visits from the Bush administration or the Chinese embassy.

Noting stories in leading US newspapers Wednesday morning that Bush is expected to meet Hu during his Beijing trip, a State Department spokesman would only say that "it is usually when people meet face-to-face that they extend such invitations to each others' countries."

For Hu, the trip would be his first to the US, and would come in advance of his expected elevation to the Chinese presidency at the 16th Communist Party Congress late this year.

Taiwan is expected to be one of the key issues of discussion between the two sides during Bush's Beijing trip, Shambaugh said.

Shambaugh said that Taiwan will be one of three main agenda items for Bush. He said the president will also try to nail down a November 2000 non-proliferation agreement with China and will voice his concern about China's religious persecution and other human-rights issues.

Regarding Taiwan, Bush will bring up the general pace of China's military modernization, in particular the buildup of short-range ballistic missiles opposing Taiwan, he said.

For the Chinese, Shambaugh quipped the issues will be, "Number one will be Taiwan, number two will be Taiwan, number three will be Taiwan, number four will be Taiwan."

China will seek to persuade Bush that they have embarked on a new policy of conciliation, "a more peaceful course, a less coercive course," he said.

Shambaugh predicted the Chinese will say, "Because we are ... back on a more peaceful track toward Taiwan, you no longer have to sell weapons to Taiwan."

The Chinese leaders "are going to hit the Americans very hard on arms sales to Taiwan," he said.

Shambaugh and other US experts strongly doubt there will be any breakthroughs during the 30-hour visit on Feb. 21 and Feb. 22.