China observers sift media for clues to upcoming reshuffle

The little details have always mattered in China's secretive and subtle world of elite politics under the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

So China watchers paid close attention when Vice Premier Qian Qichen (錢其琛) made a speech on Jan. 24 that marked an important shift in policy toward Taiwan.

And some were intrigued by what they saw.

During state television's prime-time report on the speech, which softened China's stance on the DPP, the camera lingered far longer on bespectacled Vice President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) than on Qian.

That small detail was a big deal, they said, ahead of a party leadership transition due later this year, in which Hu is expected to take over the reins.

"I would have taken his presence there as significant whether the camera was on him or not," said Joseph Fewsmith, professor of international relations at Boston University.

"But the fact that the camera was on him, I think, does underscore that point," he said.

Since the era of Mao Zedong (毛澤東), China watchers have scrutinized China's media, poring over official pictures and taking careful note of seemingly mundane details like who attended what meetings, who stood next to whom, who arrived late and who left early.

For lack of more meaty clues in a highly opaque and arcane system, Sinologists have sunk their teeth into these tidbits of information, hoping for insights into which leaders are behind which policies, who is on the way up and who is on the way out.

With a key five-yearly CCP congress and expected leadership change only months away, diplomats and analysts are now reading the tea leaves with renewed vigor for clues.

Hu has attracted particular interest.

No. 5 in the party's seven-member Politburo Standing Committee, the enigmatic Hu was anointed to succeed Jiang Zemin (江澤民) as party leader -- and as president in a government reshuffle due next year -- by late paramount leader Deng Xiaoping (鄧小平).

But very little is known about him. Analysts and diplomats eager to learn more about the man likely to be the next leader of the world's most populous country, were disappointed last year when a two-week trip to Europe answered few questions.

"Even if Hu didn't speak himself about Taiwan, clearly it's a sign that Taiwan affairs may be moving from Jiang to Hu," said Jean-Pierre Cabestan, director of the French Center for Research on Contemporary China in Hong Kong.

Fewsmith said the Taiwan speech coverage could indicate Hu may be taking the first steps to slowly raise his low profile, which has got him labelled a "yes man" but has also kept him on track for the CCP's top job.

"He's never been involved in cross-strait relations. He's never been out in front on a major policy initiative. Maybe this is a suggestion that they're ready to allow him greater access to the world," Fewsmith said. "If he's going to be general secretary he's got to start setting his own tone."

Analysts noted that a week earlier, Hu met a group of scholars and former US ambassadors visiting for a conference on Sino-US relations. That showed a keen interest in promoting positive ties with the US, some said.

They also noted the prominent media coverage of Hu's trip to the port city of Tianjin last month, during which he cradled babies and chatted with factory workers and an elderly veteran.

Too much guessing?

But some analysts said although the Chinese media were a useful tool for analysing politics, perhaps they were not what they used to be.