The US Navy hopes to present the government with up to four "preferred concepts" in February or March for building eight diesel-powered submarines, a US defense official said on Monday.
"The US Navy is in the course of evaluating concepts, and next month or the month after we hope to present three or four preferred concepts to the Taiwanese," said David Des Roches, spokesman for the US Defense Security Cooperation Agency.
In response, Taiwan's navy said it is too early to comment on the matter since the US Navy has yet to complete its selection of concepts presented by shipbuilders from around the world for the building of the eight submarines.
"We have made the US Navy fully understand what we want the submarines to be. The US Navy should be able to make the selection on the basis of the understanding," said a spokesman for the navy general headquarters.
"After the US Navy completes the selection, it will be our turn to choose from what they think" are the best concepts, the spokesman said.
US President George W. Bush in April approved the sale of eight diesel submarines to Taiwan as part of a huge arms deal that drew sharp criticism from China.
As the biggest arms deal with Taipei since 1992, it also included four Kidd-class destroyers, 12 anti-submarine P-3 "Orion" aircraft and other high-tech weapons.
US companies have not made diesel submarines since the 1950s. The Netherlands and Germany make diesel submarines but have said they will not be part of a US deal with Taiwan for fear of angering China.
Some defense experts have warned that the cost to US manufacturers of starting from scratch with a diesel submarine design could be prohibitive. Coupled with financial pressures in Taiwan, some have speculated that Taipei could even decide against acquiring the submarines.
But John Tkacik, a research fellow at the Washington-based Heritage Foundation, said US companies have expressed confidence in their ability to come up with a design for the diesel-powered submarines on their own.
Tkacik said he expected the deal to proceed, despite opposition from the US Navy, which has nuclear-powered submarines and does not want to find itself in the position of having to purchase diesel-powered submarines.
US officials said the Naval Sea Systems Command and the Navy International Program Office are evaluating the concept papers they received from Northrop Grumman Corp and six other US and international companies in November.
But some officials remained skeptical, saying Taiwan could well back away from the deal if it becomes too costly, especially if the Dutch refuse to allow use of their design.
"The Taiwanese may have to fund the complete development of a diesel submarine from start to finish, and that could be a very, very, very expensive proposition," said one US defense official, who asked not to be named.
A local defense official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said it is indeed possible that Taiwan might cancel the submarine deal with the US.
"There are a variety of factors that might cause the deal to be canceled. If the cost is too high, the deal is very likely to be scrapped," the official said. "The issue now is not whether the US can get a design for the submarines. It is whether the deal can serve the interests of the two sides."
"Taiwan hopes to have part of the eight submarines built locally. That's one way through which Taiwan can benefit from the deal," he said.
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