As the only country ever to have suffered the devastation of nuclear attacks, Japan has long renounced nuclear weapons, and it is almost inconceivable that it would reverse that policy as long as it can depend on American nuclear protection.
But Japanese officials have said privately that while they endorse missile shield research, they worry that it would only encourage China to speed its positioning of both medium and long-range nuclear missiles. They fear that any placement of theater missile defenses in Japan -- where 60,000 American forces are based -- could provoke China to increase the number of weapons targeted there.
In interviews, administration officials dismiss the argument that the missile defense would set off any kind of arms race in Asia.
"The Indians know what the Chinese are doing, and so does everyone else," a senior administration official said. "If we canceled the whole missile defense program tomorrow morning, China would still build more and better missiles, and other countries would figure out their response."
Until now, there have been few discussions between China and the Bush administration about missile defenses. In the late spring, James A. Kelly, the assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, was sent to Beijing to give a rough outline of the administration's plans to his Chinese counterparts.
Instead, the administration's focus has been on talking to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, and winning his agreement to abandon the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, which bars most of the tests for a missile shield that Bush hopes to begin in Alaska next year.
American officials have raised with Putin and his aides the possibility that Russia could contribute to the missile shield project, and that some of its technology might be incorporated in it.
So far, though, that has not resulted in any significant progress in the talks. American officials speculate that serious negotiations will not begin until Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld comes up with a plan for deep, mutual reductions in American and Russian forces.
But there have been no equivalent conversations with China. That will have to change now that Bush's trip is only six weeks away. Bush has made it clear he plans to spend a considerable amount of time on that trip trying to allay Chinese fears about his plans, much as he has attempted, with mixed success, in Europe.
But because China has such a minimal deterrent, he cannot make the kind of offer that he has made to Russia for a joint reduction of nuclear forces. The offer to allow China to improve its nuclear fleet -- and perhaps test it -- amounts to what one senior defense official calls "the incentive package" for the Chinese leadership and its military.
RSS