Chances of maverick reformist Junichiro Koizumi claiming Japan's premiership shot up yesterday as he grabbed a runaway lead in his party's primary ballots.
The dramatic twist in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership race stirred up speculation Koizumi's biggest rival and former premier Ryutaro Hashimoto may withdraw if the duel develops into a runoff.
"Koizumi to be elected as new party leader," declared the Asahi Shimbun paper as the 59-year-old former welfare minister won 42 LDP branch votes in a primary election.
"I did not think I could win this much and emerge as number one," Koizumi told a television program. "The simmering magma is coming to an explosion."
His early lead was out of the first 51 ballots cast by the 141 LDP local chapters, which gave just six votes to Hashimoto and three to Shizuka Kamei.
The staggering support for Koizumi dealt a severe blow to the 63-year-old Hashimoto, who was previously tipped as the front-runner.
Voting in the other local chapters continues until today, but all major newspapers predicted Koizumi would further advance his lead, possibly snapping up more than 100 votes of the total 141.
The new LDP leader will be decided tomorrow by votes from the party's lawmakers and the votes from its local chapters -- three votes each from the party's 47 prefectural branches.
If no contender wins a majority, a runoff election will follow the first round of balloting.
While Koizumi enjoys a stranglehold in the local chapter votes, Hashimoto, who secures the largest grouping of 102-strong faction, is seen likely to dominate the parliamentary votes.
Ahead of the possible runoff by the two top candidates, the LDP is already awash with behind-the-scenes power-broking, with Hashimoto considering withdrawing from the final vote before ending up a loser, papers said.
The party's third biggest faction co-led by Kamei and Takami Eto will likely sway the runoff results, but reports said Koizumi's sweeping early victory had already convinced them to switch their allegiance to Koizumi.
"I expect wavering people will step out," said Koizumi, a long-time advocate of privatizing the postal services system.
Koizumi already moved to paint his picture for the new Cabinet, vowing to break free from faction-tied appointments of ministers.
"I hope to appoint appropriate people regardless of recommendations made by factions. I hope to change not entirely, but substantially" the current Cabinet line-up, he said.
His outspoken deregulation plans have pitted him against the LDP's conservative old guard, who have thrown their numerical strength within the party behind Hashimoto.
Yet Hashimoto admitted he faced a struggle.
"Definitely, I am defeated in the first of three-round matches," he told a television program, relating the contest to his favorite Japanese martial art, kendo.
"I hope to restore [the loss] from now."
LDP secretary-general Hiromu Nonaka, nicknamed "shadow shogun" for his maneuvering of power behind the leading faction, also predicted Koizumi's victory.
"The stream has set its own direction," he told reporters late Saturday. "We should avoid showing people any foul-ups [in the LDP]," Nonaka added, hinting at Hashimoto's option of steering clear of a runoff.
The new party president, who is to replace Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori, will automatically become premier because of the LDP's strength in parliament.
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