The Pentagon has conceded the existence of several "gaps" in its understanding of Taiwan's and Beijing's military capacities and needs, which could affect the ability of the US to comply with the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA).
The report itself was secret, but a declassified summary was made available by the Pentagon.
This assessment was contained in a report to Congress mandated by the lawmakers, at the urging of Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott, in the 1999 appropriations law that funded the Department of Defense this year. The report covered a review of how the Pentagon has implemented the TRA, the 1979 law that requires the US to supply Taiwan with sufficient defensive weaponry, plus an assessment of "all gaps in relative knowledge" about China's "capacities and intentions" as they might affect the cross-strait military balance.
The summary identified three main knowledge gaps, which pointed to a lack of US understanding of both Beijing's and Taipei's aims and capabilities.
"First, we need to know more about how the authorities in the PRC and Taiwan view their military and political situation in order to identify the most important conflict scenarios and hence the capabilities central to them," the report summary said.
The report said that such an evaluation would also understand whether "the balance of forces adequately deters Chinese attack and reassures Taiwan and helps to figure out how both sides' calculation of priority, risk, and military capability would shape the course and outcome of a conflict."
The report could have several implications. It could bring into question future US decisions to supply Taiwan with certain defensive weapons. It could support efforts to upgrade military-to-military relations and communications between Washington and Taipei. Or it could support greater weapons sales to offset the effects of the uncertainties.
"The United States takes its obligation to assist Taiwan in maintaining a self-defense capability very seriously," the Pentagon said.
"This is not only because it is mandated by US law in the TRA, but also because it is in our own national interest," the report said.
"As long as Taiwan has a capable defense, the environment will be more conducive to peaceful dialogue, and thus the whole region will be more stable," the report said.
While the US will unlikely ever fully know how both sides view the situation, "we probably can learn much more about both sides' ideas about statecraft, their approaches to the use of force, their perceived vulnerabilities, and their preferred operational methods, "as well as their military and political planning and research organizations," the report said.
The Pentagon also conceded a lack of understanding of how emerging warfare methods such as missiles and information warfare will develop on either side of the Taiwan Strait, and how either side will develop measures and countermeasures to deal with them.
In spelling out US goals for the cross-strait issue, the report stopped short of committing the US to come to Taiwan's defense if attacked.
"The overarching US goal is to avoid any use or threat of force to resolve differences in the Taiwan Strait," it notes.
Thus, "the PRC [must] be persuaded against or deterred from attacking or threatening attack," and if the attack comes, it must be "unsuccessful."
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