A congressional report released yesterday says that although much attention has been paid to China's procurement of Sovremenny-class destroyers armed with SS-N-22 missiles, "the four quiet Kilo SS submarines might represent a greater threat to naval forces in Asia."
The Pentagon announced yesterday that Secretary of the Navy Richard Danzig departed on Oct. 10 for a one-week visit to China where he would meet with Chinese military leaders in Shanghai, Nanjing and Beijing. Danzing hopes to build upon a renewed sense of goodwill and cooperation between the countries that has been fostered by recent reciprocal naval port visits.
However, many lawmakers on Capital Hill worry that the continuing modernization of the PLA, especially arms procurements from Russia, may have significant implications for US security interests.
The report also says, however, that China poses a greater threat to Asia countries, including Taiwan, especially with China's Kilo SS submarines.
According to a statement issued in 1997 by Rear Admiral Michael Cramer, director of naval intelligence, China's current conventional submarine force is mostly obsolete, being composed of vessels of 1950s era design and technology.
China's old diesel submarines are being phased out in favor of the indigenously produced Song SS. The Song is the first Chinese submarine equipped with a submerged-launch anti-ship cruise missile. China will upgrade two of the four Russian Kilo SS subs with improved quieting and sonar technology.
Cramer writes that the Kilos are among the quietest conventional submarines in the world, and coupled with the Song SS, provides a generational leap in China's conventional submarine technology.
The Russian SS-N-22s are supersonic, low-altitude missiles capable of over-the-horizon missions and can carry a 200-kiloton nuclear warhead. Sovremenny destroyers carry eight of these "Sunburn" missiles which are intended to destroy AEGIS defense system-equipped vessels guarding carrier battle groups.
Senator Daniel Kahikina Akaka, ranking member of the Subcommittee on International Security, Proliferation, and Federal Services of the Governmental Affairs Committee who requested the congressional report, said that "the United States should not be complacent." He said "the Chinese are, for the first time in modern history, developing the capability to project air and naval forces beyond their coastal areas. The US needs to seek ways to address any threat to American interests."
According to the analysis, the catalyst for PLA modernization has been China's view that its top security problem was preventing Taiwan's permanent separation and securing unification under its definition of "one China."
The report points out that during the period between 1992 to 1999, China ranked fourth in arms transfer agreements with a total value of US$10.9 billion. During the same period, China received US$5.9 billion in arms deliveries. Russia has been the primary source of China's arms.
However, the report says that Taiwan has seven times the number of modern fighter aircraft than China. Generally, attackers tend to require greater numbers than defenders, a 3:1 ratio is traditionally considered the minimum required for success. The numerical inequity between China's modern fighters (48) and Taiwan's modern air force (340) brings into question the Chinese Air Force's ability to mount effective offensive action.
The report concludes that the operational significance of China's conventional arms acquisitions will also depend on the PLA's ability to conduct effective joint military operations that integrate its air force and navy, as well as weapons systems and other assets. This, says the report, will determine the effectiveness of any military confrontation with Taiwan in the future.
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