China is likely to stage large-scale military exercises that will begin on May 25 -- just five days after the inauguration of Taiwan's new president -- and which are expected to last for about 20 days, intelligence sources told the Taipei Times yesterday.
While Taiwan is the obvious propaganda target of the exercises, sources say the drills would also send a blunt message to the US and Japan, warning them not to interfere in the Taiwan issue.
The exercises, coded "Qiong Dao No. 4," are to be conducted in several military regions at the same time -- including Hainan Island -- and involving nearly 100,000 elite troops from around the country, sources said.
The exercises promise to be the largest of their kind since the 1995-96 Taiwan Strait Crisis, during which China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) launched a series of missile tests and drills to intimidate Taiwan in the runup to the first direct presidential election in March of 1996.
In addition to the Qiong Dao No. 4 exercises, the PLA is also planning another similar operation known as Chengkung No. 8.
The main exercises, to start on May 25, will consist of an amphibious landing and attack drill on Hainan Dao (
Troops participating in the drill are from the so-called "last warfare" group armies, whose main task is to "liberate Taiwan," they said.
The last time these group armies were mobilized for maneuvers on Hainan Island was in 1995. The main purpose of the exercises was to simulate an invasion of Taiwan on a topographically similar island.
There has been no evidence to show the PLA has held any other exercise of the series after 1995, sources said, so it is a mystery why this operation is being called Qiong Dao No. 4.
One defense official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the last warfare group armies to participate in the Hainan Island drill are not in full combat readiness yet, and that the drill is not something to be worried about since it has not reached the level of difficulty required for actual combat preparedness.
Before the amphibious landing drill spreads out on Hainan Island, there will be a series of minor drills in China's southeastern coastal provinces facing Taiwan during the 20-day exercise.
Airborne troops based in Hubei Province, for instance, will be carried by transport aircraft to carry out parachute landing drills on the border between Jiangxi and Fujian Provinces.
Meanwhile, logistics troops in Nanjing and Guangzhou military regions are to launch drills simulating provision of logistic support for first-line units during wartime.
In the East China Sea, the PLA's 2nd Artillery troops will test-fire M-class ballistic missiles.
The missile tests are to be targeted at the US and Japan, instead of Taiwan, sources said.
The missiles to be launched are most likely of the M-11 series.
The tests are aimed at training the guided missile troops for a potential armed conflict with the US in the East China Sea sometime in the future, they said.
Besides the missile launches, the PLA will also put to test in the upcoming exercise its other preparations for engagement with the US troops.
The preparations include retreat of ground troops into the interior as well as forward movements of missile units.
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