US Republican Party front-runner George W. Bush has again expressed support for Taiwan in the strongest terms -- this time, saying if elected, the United States would defend the "free people" of Taiwan if China resorted to bullying.
But such comments -- while welcome in Taiwan -- came as little surprise, cross-strait analysts said.
"There are really no surprises," said Julian Kuo (
Bush's remarks -- made during a speech yesterday -- placed particular emphasis on shifting the approach of the current US-China relationship away from a "strategic partnership" and toward what he called a "competitive relationship."
"China is a competitor, not a strategic partner. We must deal with China without ill will, but without illusions," Bush said during his first major policy speech. "This means keeping our pledge to deter aggression against the Republic of Korea and strengthening security ties with Japan. This means expanding theater missile defenses among our allies."
Bush, however, did not specify Taiwan when he mentioned the Theatre Missile Defense (TMD) system, a defense umbrella Beijing adamantly opposes, especially if it were to include Taiwan.
"I don't know how far Bush would go -- would he support the development of TMD for Taiwan?" Kuo asked.
Joseph Wu (吳釗燮), a professor at National Chengchi University's Institute of International Relations, agreed.
"His statement is not that clear, but it is clear that he is willing to come to Taiwan's assistance," Wu said.
During his speech Bush said: "We do not deny there is one China. But we deny the right of Beijing to impose their rule on a free people. As I've said before, we will help Taiwan defend itself."
Analysts also said it was unclear whether Bush implied that would include any moves by China to force unification on Taiwan in the future in the form of the expanded "one country, two systems" formula the island has been offered.
What was clear, Wu said, was that US-China policy is tough to change, no matter what one's stance may be.
Echoing comments made by Bush, Wu said that previously US President Bill Clinton had called the Chinese leadership the "butchers of Beijing," only later to support a "strategic partnership with China".
But he said Clinton was not the only one doing so.
Ronald Reagan, during his campaigning in the 1980 election campaign, had threatened to cut ties with China -- only to later sign the third US-PRC Joint Communique in 1982, Wu said.
The Communique calls on both sides to work to eventually halt weapons sales to Taiwan.
Such a phenomenon can not only be labelled empty promises but more importantly shows the consistent control the State Department has had on the US-China relationship, Wu said.
"You can't be overly optimistic," Wu said. "Even though some candidates want to reorient US-China relations, the State Department has been involved for a long time."
Wu said, however, that a shift in tone, even if only that, was welcome for Taiwan.
"If the tone is more favorable, if the US State Department is not calling Taiwan a troublemaker, that is progress," Wu said.
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