independence. Sudden change in China should be seen as a danger signal by Taipei. The continuance of the present status quo depends on political stability on the other side of the Taiwan Strait. Any change, even one to democracy, will be very dangerous, because it could lead to unpredictable
decisions at top Chinese government levels.
Furthermore, a change to democracy might well be
specifically threatening. It would be unlikely to happen without considerable social debate, and possibly unrest, and the traditional response of governments to this is to try to unite the people by focusing attention on foreign
adventures. While China is
concerned with getting rich, war is unlikely. It's when something threatens to upset the apple-cart that Taiwan is most in danger.
"Russia's attacks on Chechnya reflect the dangers of preemptive bids for independence when a former empire is going through democratization," Gilley writes.
He goes on to make the point that for Taiwan to declare independence when such changes in China were on-going might jeopardize the growth there of the very democratic and associated freedoms that Taiwan currently so conspicuously enjoys.
Given Taiwan's long insistence that China be democratic before any political coalition could be considered, he writes, it would be dishonest for Taiwan to retreat from that position. Various forms of
"contract" -- in other words
agreement freely entered into and of benefit to both parties -- are
possible, Gilley argues. One might be a confederation such as the British Commonwealth, with China and Taiwan only as loosely associated as the UK and Canada."Given the island's close economic integration with China, "he concludes, "political cooperation could be widely
welcomed beyond the tired old pro-China crowd in Taipei."
China's Democratic Future, then, is an intelligent and cogent book,
elegantly written and closely
argued. It may both appear and prove to be over-optimistic, but as a bid for sanity it's none the worse for that. The author worked in Hong Kong for a decade as a
journalist on the Far Eastern Economic Review, is now an
adjunct professor of international affairs at the New School University in the US, and is the author of two other books on Chinese politics.
RSS