Piazza,which has 11 nominations, is also expected to win an award for its orchestrations (how the music is arranged, in lay terms), which could put its early tally at four wins.
Now, a sure thing: barring flood, tornado or kidnapping by Dame Edna, Billy Crystal will win a Tony for special theatrical event for his autobiographical monologue 700 Sundays. Without a doubt. You can bank on it. Seriously, folks. Bet it if possible. A lot.
The acting categories, however, will offer a little more drama and one of the Tony Award's true pleasures: the anointment of unknown actors. Like Dan Fogler.
Never heard of him? Well, that may be because until this spring, the closest Fogler had gotten to Broadway was the subway. A veteran of the off-off-Broadway trenches, Fogler earned his big break when a little Fringe Festival play he starred in -- C-R-E-P-U-S-C-L-E -- was converted into an off-Broadway musical, which transferred to Broadway in the spring. The show, The 25th Annual Putnam County Spelling Bee, was a critical darling, and Fogler, playing the overweight and terminally nerdy William Barfee, was the darling's darling. "That kid," said a producer, "is so freaking funny."
And now, on Sunday, he's going to win a Tony for featured actor in a musical, according to those polled.
Another feel-good story also seems to be developing in the featured actress in a musical category, where Sara Ramirez, a Broadway trouper who is stealing scenes in Spamalot, looks like a winner.
The featured actor in a play categories are much harder to call. Most of those polled mentioned
Adriane Lenox, who plays a conflicted mother in Doubt, as the probable winner, but her cast mate, Heather Goldenhersh, who plays an idealistic nun, has a more substantial role and may steal some votes. Also registering some support was Mireille Enos, who plays the lightweight wife in Virginia Woolf, but look for Lenox to eke it out.
As for the featured actors, Alan Alda, who was nominated for an Oscar this year (for The Aviator), would seem to be a natural favorite for his acclaimed work as a sad-sack salesman in Glengarry Glen Ross. But on Broadway, nothing is ordinary, especially in a year packed with strong male ensembles (see Twelve Angry Men, Julius Caesar, Democracy). And sure enough, voters seem to place Alda at the back of the pack, behind two established stage actors: Liev Schreiber, playing a shark of a man in Glengarry, and Michael Stuhlbarg, playing half of one in The Pillowman. But, barring a tie, only one can win, and it will be Stuhlbarg. (Or maybe Schreiber.)
Alda's best hope, one voter said, is a constituency that many Tony predictors -- a famously cliquey crowd -- forget. Roughly 15 percent of all Tony voters come from regions outside New York, where star power can be more important than a longtime commitment to the stage. "In town, it would go to Michael," one voter said of Stuhlbarg. "But a lot of these people aren't in town."
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