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Will the sheen of the screen help Tony shine?

NY TIMES NEWS SERVICE
Saturday, Jun 04, 2005, Page 16

Favored to win Tonys on Sunday night are the two stars of the drama Doubt, A Parable, Cherry Jones, left, and Brian O'Byrne. PHOTO: NY TIMES

In case you can't watch the Tony Awards tomorrow, here's what's going to happen: There will be show tunes, show people and at least a couple of terrible dresses.

The host, Hugh Jackman, will read the teleprompter and Billy Crystal will read an acceptance speech. And The Light in the Piazza, an ambitious musical by a grandson of Broadway royalty, might just win more prizes than any other show but still won't win the big one.

That, at least, was the conventional wisdom along Broadway this week as the theater industry headed into the final days of the season, which included a bevy of big men on campus, a dearth of decent old musicals, and US$768 million in sales.

A big chunk of that figure came from shows that opened in the spring, and the Tonys should follow suit, with productions like Monty Python's Spamalot, Doubt, A Parable and The Light in the Piazza all favored to win multiple awards. Indeed, most on Broadway predict a remarkably democratic distribution of Tonys, though a few old-timers sense the possibility of a big Spamalot sweep.

Tony prognostication is an inexact science, and even the biggest eggheads on Broadway aren't completely sure about a few very tight races, including the biggest, and final, prize of the night: best musical. For that award, word on the street is a close race between two shows, Spamalot and The 25th Annual Putnam County Spelling Bee, with Dirty Rotten Scoundrels and The Light in the Piazza stalking them.

But as Avenue Q proved last year (and Giacomo proved at the Kentucky Derby), sometimes dark horses finish in the money, so there should be some nervous tummies at Radio City Music Hall by the time the last award is announced. Long before that, many Broadway professionals say, Piazza and Doubt will have picked up a bushel of awards, and a lesser-known Irish actor, Brian F.

O'Byrne, will become only the second actor to win consecutive Tonys for acting in plays. (The first? You'll have to read on.)

For casual theater fans, meanwhile, there will also be some other reasons to watch Sunday night. Armed with a new press agent, the powerful firm PMK/HBH, the Tony organizers are hoping for a respite from the show's mediocre ratings and have hired Jackman in another bid for Hollywood street cred. To that end, the producers of the CBS broadcast have also booked an eclectic (some would say bizarre) roster of star presenters, including Broadway never-beens like Don Cheadle, Sandra Oh and Marcia Cross.

For Broadway producers, the Tonys offer a once-a-year opportunity to showcase their productions for a national television audience, so the musical numbers usually merit a glance. All four nominees for best musical will be represented, as will Sweet Charity and La Cage aux Folles, two of the nominees in the anemic musical revival category.

Even in that category, someone has to prevail, of course. And beyond that there are a handful of interesting races among the 25 competitive awards. Here's who is expected to win, according to an esteemed panel of 16 Tony voters, industry insiders and other theatrical know-it-alls who were polled for this article.

Most voters feel that the early part of the show -- when design, direction and choreography awards are usually handed out -- will be good to two productions: The Light in the Piazza, and The Pillowman.

Piazza,which has 11 nominations, is also expected to win an award for its orchestrations (how the music is arranged, in lay terms), which could put its early tally at four wins.

Now, a sure thing: barring flood, tornado or kidnapping by Dame Edna, Billy Crystal will win a Tony for special theatrical event for his autobiographical monologue 700 Sundays. Without a doubt. You can bank on it. Seriously, folks. Bet it if possible. A lot.

The acting categories, however, will offer a little more drama and one of the Tony Award's true pleasures: the anointment of unknown actors. Like Dan Fogler.

Never heard of him? Well, that may be because until this spring, the closest Fogler had gotten to Broadway was the subway. A veteran of the off-off-Broadway trenches, Fogler earned his big break when a little Fringe Festival play he starred in -- C-R-E-P-U-S-C-L-E -- was converted into an off-Broadway musical, which transferred to Broadway in the spring. The show, The 25th Annual Putnam County Spelling Bee, was a critical darling, and Fogler, playing the overweight and terminally nerdy William Barfee, was the darling's darling. "That kid," said a producer, "is so freaking funny."

And now, on Sunday, he's going to win a Tony for featured actor in a musical, according to those polled.

Another feel-good story also seems to be developing in the featured actress in a musical category, where Sara Ramirez, a Broadway trouper who is stealing scenes in Spamalot, looks like a winner.

The featured actor in a play categories are much harder to call. Most of those polled mentioned

Adriane Lenox, who plays a conflicted mother in Doubt, as the probable winner, but her cast mate, Heather Goldenhersh, who plays an idealistic nun, has a more substantial role and may steal some votes. Also registering some support was Mireille Enos, who plays the lightweight wife in Virginia Woolf, but look for Lenox to eke it out.

As for the featured actors, Alan Alda, who was nominated for an Oscar this year (for The Aviator), would seem to be a natural favorite for his acclaimed work as a sad-sack salesman in Glengarry Glen Ross. But on Broadway, nothing is ordinary, especially in a year packed with strong male ensembles (see Twelve Angry Men, Julius Caesar, Democracy). And sure enough, voters seem to place Alda at the back of the pack, behind two established stage actors: Liev Schreiber, playing a shark of a man in Glengarry, and Michael Stuhlbarg, playing half of one in The Pillowman. But, barring a tie, only one can win, and it will be Stuhlbarg. (Or maybe Schreiber.)

Alda's best hope, one voter said, is a constituency that many Tony predictors -- a famously cliquey crowd -- forget. Roughly 15 percent of all Tony voters come from regions outside New York, where star power can be more important than a longtime commitment to the stage. "In town, it would go to Michael," one voter said of Stuhlbarg. "But a lot of these people aren't in town."
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