In case you can't watch the Tony Awards tomorrow, here's what's going to happen: There will be show tunes, show people and at least a couple of terrible dresses.
The host, Hugh Jackman, will read the teleprompter and Billy Crystal will read an acceptance speech. And The Light in the Piazza, an ambitious musical by a grandson of Broadway royalty, might just win more prizes than any other show but still won't win the big one.
That, at least, was the conventional wisdom along Broadway this week as the theater industry headed into the final days of the season, which included a bevy of big men on campus, a dearth of decent old musicals, and US$768 million in sales.
A big chunk of that figure came from shows that opened in the spring, and the Tonys should follow suit, with productions like Monty Python's Spamalot, Doubt, A Parable and The Light in the Piazza all favored to win multiple awards. Indeed, most on Broadway predict a remarkably democratic distribution of Tonys, though a few old-timers sense the possibility of a big Spamalot sweep.
Tony prognostication is an inexact science, and even the biggest eggheads on Broadway aren't completely sure about a few very tight races, including the biggest, and final, prize of the night: best musical. For that award, word on the street is a close race between two shows, Spamalot and The 25th Annual Putnam County Spelling Bee, with Dirty Rotten Scoundrels and The Light in the Piazza stalking them.
But as Avenue Q proved last year (and Giacomo proved at the Kentucky Derby), sometimes dark horses finish in the money, so there should be some nervous tummies at Radio City Music Hall by the time the last award is announced. Long before that, many Broadway professionals say, Piazza and Doubt will have picked up a bushel of awards, and a lesser-known Irish actor, Brian F.
O'Byrne, will become only the second actor to win consecutive Tonys for acting in plays. (The first? You'll have to read on.)
For casual theater fans, meanwhile, there will also be some other reasons to watch Sunday night. Armed with a new press agent, the powerful firm PMK/HBH, the Tony organizers are hoping for a respite from the show's mediocre ratings and have hired Jackman in another bid for Hollywood street cred. To that end, the producers of the CBS broadcast have also booked an eclectic (some would say bizarre) roster of star presenters, including Broadway never-beens like Don Cheadle, Sandra Oh and Marcia Cross.
For Broadway producers, the Tonys offer a once-a-year opportunity to showcase their productions for a national television audience, so the musical numbers usually merit a glance. All four nominees for best musical will be represented, as will Sweet Charity and La Cage aux Folles, two of the nominees in the anemic musical revival category.
Even in that category, someone has to prevail, of course. And beyond that there are a handful of interesting races among the 25 competitive awards. Here's who is expected to win, according to an esteemed panel of 16 Tony voters, industry insiders and other theatrical know-it-alls who were polled for this article.
Most voters feel that the early part of the show -- when design, direction and choreography awards are usually handed out -- will be good to two productions: The Light in the Piazza, and The Pillowman.
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