In the Taipei mayoral election of 2002, the first of four choices on offer among bookies had Mayor Ma beating his opponent, Lee Ying-yuan (
"Even the best bet was ridiculous," A-Shen said. "There are only two million voters in Taipei City -- the bookies don't tell you that. You were not only betting that Ma would get 75 percent of the vote, you were betting that everyone would go out and vote!"
A-Shen said he's holding out for the candidates themselves to get involved and saw Chen's visits to Wang and Yen as an indication that the odds may soon swing the other way. "I'm waiting for long, 1:10 odds on Chen," he said. "A-Bian is smart. Betting against him would be stupid."
WANNA MAKE A BET?
The hardest part of placing a big-money wager on the presidential election may be finding a bookmaker with whom to place it.
"In northern Taiwan, there certainly are very few," said Soochow University's Emile Sheng. "My feeling is that it would be easier to find one in the south of the island." While Sheng, a political science professor, said he wouldn't know where to begin looking, some of the frequent gamblers interviewed for this report suggested inquiring with a law enforcement official.
"The biggest bookmaker I know is a chief of police," said one punter who, for reasons that ought to be perfectly understandable, asked not to be named.
Even if you do find one, you may never meet your bookie except over the phone. Winnings are delivered by the little guys that work under him. Losing bets are collected by the bigger guys that work under him.
Once you've got your man, you may not find his odds all that agreeable. Bookmakers usually have a "portfolio" of four or five bets they're pushing -- say, 1:0.5 on the blue camp winning by 700,000 votes, 1:1 on it winning by 800,000, and so on. Their interest is not just in balancing their books, but maximizing their earnings by selling suckers on improbable scenarios. If you don't like the odds you're offered, you might consider making a bet on the voting returns in a specific county or city (see map graphic).
If you place a winning bet, part of your earnings will go toward paying your bookie for his trouble, usually 10 percent. Of that amount, lower and mid-level bookies each take 20 percent and the man bankrolling it all takes the remaining 60 percent. Don't expect anyone to be interested in taking your measly NT$10,000 wager. Minimum bets with these organizations are usually NT$100,000 or more. Big boys play with millions.
The good news, gamblers say, is that no one will ask you for money up front. But if you lose, expect the phone to ring.
Lastly, you should also know that Chapter 4, Article 266 of the Criminal Code prohibits all forms of gambling except for in the case of "temporary amusement." The good news here is that you'll only be fined NT$3,000 if you're caught -- that's less than a third of the "service charge" you paid the bookmakers.
And what if you can't cover your losses? The anonymous punter above advised against seeking refuge in the law: "The cop you talk to might be your bookie."
RSS