"All contacts are stopped. We had expected North Korea to take up the process again, but they haven't," says South Korea's foreign minister Han Seung-soo. Since Pyongyang left the negotiations last March, not much has been happening diplomatically between the two estranged Koreas. Many explanations are given for the stalemate, it really depends on who you ask.
For some, the hardening of the US position after the change of government in Washington is the main cause for the collapse of the Sunshine policy. Others argue, a lack of domestic support for Kim Dae-jung's strategy of engaging the North is responsible. And then, of course, there are always those who load all the responsibility on the North Koreans, who -- according to this school of thought -- are once more showing their true face. As with most things, I believe, the truth is somewhere in the middle, with all three factors taken together responsible for the present all but jolly state of inter-Korean relations.
In the eyes of the South Korean government, one person could cut the Gordian knot. And this one person is no other than Kim Jong-il himself.
A South Korean journalist has counted eight instances at which President Kim Dae-jung reminded his North Korean counterpart in public to make true his promise and commit himself to coming to Seoul for the much-aspired reciprocal visit. Kim Dae-jung has good reasons to be impatient: with his presidency slowly but surely moving toward the end, it is understandable that he desires to carry on the historic process of national reconciliation kicked of so triumphantly at the first inter-Korean summit in mid-June of last year. On the other hand, Kim Jong-il -- so far at least -- has not broken his promise: the Joint Declaration, in which his return visit is mentioned, stipulates that this should take place "at an appropriate time." Quite obviously, the North Korean at this very moment does not deem the conditions appropriate.
Meanwhile, the Dear Leader's visit has developed into the dominant issue of South Korean domestic politics, overshadowing, yes, poisoning, once more the relations between the political parties in the year ahead of the crucial presidential elections.
South Koreans have gotten accustomed to politically instigated conspiracy theories. In this specific case, the inventors of the political plot have invested extraordinary fantasy: The main opposition party and with it an influential segment of the media allege that the controversial media tax probe is guided by the aim to discipline certain hardcore conservative newspapers that have repeatedly voiced opposition against Kim Jong-il's visit.
"The massive tax probe of news media is to silence the dailies that bare critical to the governments efforts to lay the groundwork of the Seoul visit," one could read recently in an editorial of one Seoul daily. This is a serious accusation, which -- should it prove accurate -- would force all democrats to go to the barricades. But then, nothing substantiates the claim, that the freedom of expression of the conservative gazettes has been curtailed. Hardly a day goes by, without these media attacking with poisonous prose (and not always convincing arguments) the North Korea-policy of the government.
More recently, a new chapter in the seemingly endless plot was opened, when one right-wing paper published a document according to which the main governing party plans to amend the Constitution with the aim of prolonging its rule after a successful visit of the North Korean leader. One should note, the government has denied also this allegation. The politician charged with having written the incriminated script for a constitutional coup detat has filed a defamation suit against the paper.
The opposition is not overtly rejecting Kim Jong-il's visit to Seoul, but has attached an insurmountable political precondition: he should apologize for the Korean War and other atrocities committed over the years by the communist state. Others in the South, and they are more than a few, have vowed to stage massive demonstrations should Kim Jong-il dare to come. One of them is Lee Chul-seung, Chairman of the National Council for Freedom and Democracy: "Welcoming the North Korean leader is no different from Hitler going to Israel without apology and compensation."
With his return visit an object of politically motivated mud-slinging in the South, little wonder, the North Korean leader does not feel welcome at this very moment. But South Korea's domestic politics and the many open questions regarding protocol and security during a North Korean return visit are but one part of the equation. In addition, and probably even more important, are the substantial issues. From all we know, Kim Jong-il is a shrewd politician, calculating carefully every move, weighing advantages and disadvantages, chances and risks. This said, we should assume, he will only consider a visit to Seoul seriously, if he has been assured it will pay off for him -- both politically and economically. But this does not seem the case, presently. "The conditions now are not favorable that the summit can be a big success," said US scholar Selig Harrisson after returning from Pyongyang, where he had a rare chance to speak with leading exponents of the communist regime.
"From the North's viewpoint, Seoul broke its promises," explains a commentator of a leading South Korean daily, referring to the wholehearted pledges made by President Kim Dae-jung, that the South would give massive assistance aimed at helping the North overcome its economic misery. This pledge was first delivered during Kim Dae-jung's historic speech at the Free University of Berlin in March last year, where among others he announced that "extensive overhead facilities should be put in place in the form of highway, harbor, railroad, electricity and communications."
At the very heart of North Korea's economic catastrophe stands the virtual breakdown of the energy system. Whoever is sincere in his intention to help the North Koreans get back on their feet, must help here. On more than one occasion, Pyongyang has asked the South to deliver much-needed electricity. During the fourth ministerial talks held last December, this matter topped the agenda. This February, Seoul and Pyongyang discussed the provision of electricity at the working-level. According to media reports, no progress was achieved. As is well known, soon later the inter-Korean dialogue collapsed. Meanwhile, on the other side of the Pacific, a new administration had taken charge, an administration, that -- as is well-known -- has far less friendly inclinations toward the North Korean "rogues" than its predecessors. It did not take long, and the Bush administration gave clear directives to Seoul.
According to a recent revelation by the former South Korean Vice Minister for Unification, Jeong, Se-hyun, Seoul was initially willing to talk about the North Korean request for energy-supply, but was then held back: "Negotiations have been suspended because of the US request to that effect," he writes. This account throws a light on Seoul's lack of political independence and is confirmed by US expert Selig Harrison: "At present, the US is not even letting South Korea give Pyongyang desperately needed energy assistance that Seoul had promised. This is the principal reason for Kim Jong-il's delay in visiting the South."
Ronald Meinardus is the Resident Representative of the Friedrich-Naumann-Foundation in Seoul and a commentator on Korean affairs.