A conversation with a young female student from Hong Kong during an event at the Taipei Economic and Cultural Office (TECO) in New York City to discuss the Taiwanse election results — Hong Kongers have recently been attending Taiwan-related events in the US — proved to be an eye-opener.
“Why should Taiwan declare formal independence?” she asked in response to a question about whether the results of the Jan. 11 elections would strengthen Taiwan’s aspirations for independence.
“Taiwan doesn’t have to ... it’s already independent,” she said.
Talking about Taiwan’s independence is analogous to raising the red flag to the snorting communist bulls across the Taiwan Strait. China fears that the re-election of President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文), which she won handsomely, could be followed by the announcement of Taiwan’s formal independence.
Tsai’s remarks that Taiwan has its own identity, which China interpreted as the nation’s efforts to move toward formal independence, would expectedly draw pressure onto the nation to return to what China calls the “motherland’s fold.”
However, Tsai’s election victory has alarmed Beijing, which feels that it might now become even more difficult to control Hong Kong demonstrations against China that have become a regular feature since June last year.
After initially demonstrating against Hong Kong’s now withdrawn extradition bill, the protestors have turned their ire against China’s tightening control of the former British colony and against the erosion of what little freedoms remain in Hong Kong.
Indeed, Taiwan’s election results have prompted a number of think tanks and institutions, such as the Council on Foreign Relations, the Asia Society and the Foreign Policy Research Institute, to hold events in New York to discuss the elections and the implications for cross-strait relations and in the region.
Ambiguity has been a characteristic of the US’ “one China” policy. It has also become the US mantra that allows it to express support for Taiwanese leadership, while placating China’s suspicion about any ulterior motives behind Washington’s position on the arrangement.
An indicator of China’s distrust toward an alleged US and Taiwanese collusion could be seen in the recent remarks by Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi (王毅).
While visiting Zimbabwe, Wang reacted to Tsai’s victory by sharply criticizing those who support Taiwan’s independence — a reference that many interpret as not only aimed at her Democratic Progressive Party, but also US supporters of the nation.
Wang said that Taiwan’s unification with China was “inevitable” and the opponents of unification would “stink for 10,000 years.”
Not to be outdone, China’s state-controlled media also spoke of “external dark forces” manipulating Taiwan’s election results.
The Chinese foreign minister’s comments betray a deep sense of uneasiness in the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) over the escalating Hong Kong protests, which to many observers seem uncontrollable and could lead to greater cooperation between Hong Kong dissidents and Taiwan.
Indeed, Hong Kong protesters staged a victory rally for Tsai, whose re-election was welcomed and seen as a boost to the territory’s anti-government movement.
Many Hong Kong students in New York maintain that Tsai’s victory presented a “ray of hope to the protesters in Hong Kong’s “very depressing” atmosphere, as one student privately said during a conversation at a TECO event in New York City.
National sovereignty, democracy and cross-strait relations dominated Taiwan’s elections amid accusations of Beijing interference.
China, which protested as senior officials from the US, Britain and Japan congratulated Tsai on her victory, urged the international community to stick to the “one China” principle and refrain from official communications with the Taiwanese leadership.
It is comforting for the majority of Hong Kongers that Tsai and her party could gain an impressive election victory — she obtained about 57 percent of the popular vote — despite attempts by a hostile and threatening Beijing to influence the outcome.
China, on the other hand, fears that Hong Kong, where the people face a steady erosion of their civil rights and liberties, is turning Taiwan’s population against the “one country, two systems” formula.
China’s efforts to isolate Taiwan in the international arena are also seen as further proof that its intentions are anything but benevolent.
There is fear among some US — and Taiwanese — experts that China, after Tsai’s impressive victory, could intensify its pressure on the handful of smaller nations that still maintain diplomatic ties with Taiwan by offering them economic sops to sever ties with Taipei using Beijing’s “checkbook diplomacy.”
While Tsai’s victory suggests that Taiwan’s population does not want to unify with China, they would like to coexist separately with the nation in peace and harmony.
In her election victory speech, Tsai rejected Beijing’s attempts to use threats of force against Taiwan, but she also hinted that her government would refrain from making provocations during the next four years.
She called for partnership with Taiwan’s neighbors.
Meanwhile, the US has intensified its cooperation with Taiwan, including through arms sales, general diplomatic support and high-level interactions under the Taiwan Travel Act.
Washington also recognizes that China’s poaching of Taiwan’s diplomatic allies is unjust, even though the US could do more to stop the nations from severing ties with Taiwan.
Still, tensions are expected to increase between Beijing and Washington, which are locked in an uneasy relationship, even though they recently finalized a “phase one” trade deal that appears to have eased some of the pressure caused by their trade dispute. This “phase one” pact serves as a precursor to a more extensive trade deal between the two sides.
Any belligerence on China’s part, for example, not only in regard to Taiwan, but also in the dispute over the South China Sea could send the US-China relationship into a tailspin. The list of issues on which China faces criticism — be it Hong Kong, Tibet or the persecution of the Muslim Uighur population in Xinjiang — would only get longer.
Manik Mehta is a New York-based journalist with writing experience on foreign affairs, diplomacy, global economics and international trade.
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