Media reports are making the rounds in the US about the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conducting drills and preparing for a crackdown on Hong Kong’s demonstrators in an effort to not only crush the protests, but also send a stern message that there is no going back on Chinese control of Hong Kong.
However, the consequences of such a step by the PLA will be disastrous for both Hong Kong and China. It will exacerbate the increasingly negative perception of Hong Kong sinking into anarchy.
The ongoing protests have already taken a heavy toll on Hong Kong’s economy and tourism; the once-thriving Asian financial hub seems to be heading toward its first recession in a decade. A brutal assault by the PLA would sound the death knell of Hong Kong’s much-touted “economic miracle,” besides harming China’s international image and credibility, causing it further economic problems amid the US-China trade war and alienating it from major trading partners.
The US Congress has already warned that it is closely watching China’s moves on Hong Kong, and that it will be forced to take action against Beijing if it resorted to direct intervention with the use of force. A repetition of the Tiananmen Square Massacre in Hong Kong will have fatal consequences for both Hong Kong and China.
China has benefited immensely from Hong Kong’s sophisticated financial architecture and its ties to the world’s financial centers. Beijing’s crackdown would destroy the trust and confidence that the world had, slowly, started to place in China.
Two pro-democracy members of Hong Kong’s Legislative Council are in the US to inform US political and government figures and civil society about the situation in the territory amid reports of Chinese troops carrying out drills for a possible crackdown on the protesters.
Speaking at the Asia Society in New York, the Civic Party’s Dennis Kwok (郭榮鏗) and Alvin Yeung (楊岳橋) said they wanted to present the “truth” to the outside world about developments taking place in Hong Kong.
They are also holding talks with US government officials on a bill which the US Congress will debate next month aimed at closely monitoring Beijing’s moves in Hong Kong.
The bill, called the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act, was reintroduced in June after the escalating protests in the territory; under the bill, the US will evaluate Hong Kong’s autonomy each year and establish whether the territory should continue to enjoy the benefits of the special trade status under the US-Hong Kong Policy Act of 1992.
The bill’s passage, it is hoped, would deter China from cracking down on Hong Kong. The loss of this status, in the event of a Chinese crackdown, could hit the flow of investment into the territory and the mainland.
US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi, a Democrat, in a recent statement criticized the escalating violence against the Hong Kong protesters, describing the situation as “extremely alarming.”
She said there was bipartisan support for Hong Kong’s residents, adding that the US aims to ban the supply of munitions and other crowd-controlling equipment to the Hong Kong Police Force.
The two visiting legislators, who are also taking part in a four-day US-Hong Kong dialogue in Montana, said that while the controversial extradition bill had triggered the present wave of protests, the demonstrators had deep underlying concerns about the steady erosion of the liberties and democratic values guaranteed under the “one country, two-systems” formula.
Kwok condemned the use of tear gas and police batons every time there were mass protests instead of fixing the cause of the problem.
“It’s like someone who’s seriously ill, and every time the symptoms come out, you just give that guy painkillers, no, expired painkillers, hoping the symptoms will go away,” Kwok said.
“All Hong Kong’s people want is democracy, as promised under the Basic Law,” Kwok said, adding: “That promise has failed.”
The two legislators also questioned Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam’s (林鄭月娥) credentials as a true representative of the territory’s interests.
“When Carrie Lam goes to meet [Chinese] President Xi Jinping (習近平), is she standing up for Hong Kong people? Is she arguing [the] Hong Kong people’s case?” Yeung said.
When asked about reports of a possible crackdown by Beijing on the Hong Kong protesters, Yeung said that it would not be in Beijing’s interest to do that, because it would “certify the end of the ‘one country, two systems’ ... and send the loudest message to the rest of the world,” not to mention the reaction in Taiwan.
Beijing clings to the forlorn hope of bringing Taiwan into its fold in the foreseeable future.
The two legislators noted that “one country, two systems” was Beijing’s pledge to maintain the territory’s political system for 50 years after the British handed the territory over in 1997, with hopes that by 2047 the systems would have converged, most likely, toward Hong Kong’s direction.
Kwok said that the US and all Western countries have a stake in Hong Kong, while Yeung said they were not talking about “liberal democracy values in the abstract.”
“Hong Kong has been practicing liberal democracy values over past 100 years ... to sustain and protect an international financial center, we need all these values, including free flow of information, freedom of movement, freedom of speech and also, more importantly, the rule of law,” he said.
This view is widely shared by financial experts, who say that Beijing benefited from Hong Kong’s financial expertise and efficacy in China’s international financial dealings.
Consequently, a PLA assault on Hong Kong’s protesters would only spell disaster for China, impairing its global influence and making unification with Taiwan a perennial pipe dream.
However, how valid are fears of an impending assault?
Jerome Cohen, a well-respected professor and director of New York University School of Law’s US-Asia Law Institute and an expert/adjunct senior fellow for Asia studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, said that after celebrating the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) 70th anniversary on Oct. 1, Beijing might well deploy the PLA.
This would have tragic consequences for Hong Kong and its people, the PRC’s world standing and international security, Cohen said.
Will China kill the goose that lays the golden egg? The coming weeks and months will provide greater clarity on this question.
Manik Mehta is a New York-based journalist with extensive writing experience on foreign affairs, diplomacy, global economics and international trade.
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