On July 7 on Ketagalan Boulevard in Taipei, the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) protested against what it calls an “iron cage referendum” — changes to the Referendum Act (公民投票法) pushed through by the Democratic Progressive Party last month — but the impact of the protest was limited.
The KMT has failed to dominate the issues as next year’s presidential election looms, which is a sign that the pan-blue camp has lost momentum and that its supporters have not forgiven the KMT for wasting the political capital it gained from its performance in the nine-in-one local elections in November last year. It also shows that the party is finding it difficult to break out of the framework constructed by President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文), which is unfavorable for the KMT as it struggles to set the political agenda.
If it cannot find a way to deal with this situation, its chances of winning in January will be slim.
The weakened party leadership’s inability to restrain the power struggle between the contenders for its presidential primary and address the possibility of a split following it is why its political capital has dropped. In the local elections, Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu (韓國瑜) showed that he had the capability to single-handedly save the party, while Hon Hai Group founder Terry Gou (郭台銘) has repeatedly offered his assistance. The two have turned the party leadership into a leadership in name only.
Although KMT Chairman Wu Den-yih (吳敦義) is not contesting the primary and is pledging keep the process fair, concerns continue to abound. It seems that the passive party leadership can only move forward at a crawl in the face of supporters’ doubts and criticism.
It is easy to imagine that a crisis will arise if the primary results fall within the margin of error.
The KMT’s inability to move the public discourse away from protecting Taiwan’s sovereignty, a discussion that Tsai has fomented, is making it even more difficult for the pan-blue camp to expand its support base. Tsai positioning herself as a lataimei (辣台妹, “tough Taiwanese girl”) has allowed her to continue to dominate national security and sovereignty issues, while bolstering the impression that she is the one most capable of safeguarding the nation. In addition, she navigates anti-China issues well, which has consolidated her support base among young voters.
It will not be easy for the KMT to break through these barriers, but the party can start by making three changes:
First, its leadership can become stronger to restrain the power struggles among its presidential hopefuls and prevent a split.
As KMT chairman, Wu should remain strictly neutral during the primary poll, and it should be conducted strictly in accordance with the regulations to win the trust of all candidates. A flawless primary would bolster Wu’s authority. He could then call on KMT mayors and commissioners to form an alliance so he can maintain control and prevent a post-primary split. He would also have a platform to complement and work with the presidential candidate.
Second, the KMT should be more flexible with the timing, type and channels it uses to set the public discourse. The referendum protest, for example, was not timed well.
Criticism of Tsai by KMT legislators and its leadership, accusing her of trading freedom for national security concerns, was formulaic and unimaginative, and generated little online discussion. It did nothing to restrain the Tsai administration.
Third, if the KMT wants to gain the upper hand, its primary candidates should work harder to control and calm their supporters amid the primary poll and above all prevent them from attacking each other.
More importantly, the losing candidates must not be convinced by their fans to run independently.
Niu Tse-hsun is a professor at Chinese Culture University’s department of advertising.
Translated by Eddy Chang
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