On June 13, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) released the results of its primary poll, giving the victory to President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) and putting an end to the suspense that had been building since former premier William Lai (賴清德) declared in March that he would also seek the nomination.
His announcement caused a lot of uncertainty, not only because it made people wonder who was going to be the party’s next presidential candidate, but because many people thought that this “unnecessary” primary challenge would generate rifts within the party, making it difficult for the eventual nominee to win next year’s presidential election.
The support for Lai’s candidacy came from a faction within the DPP that is more nationalist, whose members would like to change the name of the nation to the “Republic of Taiwan” and who consider Tsai to take a weak stand toward China.
The faction standing behind Tsai believes that it is better to keep the “Republic of China” as the nation’s official name — mainly because they believe that changing the name would provoke China into declaring war with Taiwan, based on a law that China enacted in 2005.
Concerns that the DPP would be unable to put itself back together after the primary only increased when the party started changing the dates of the nomination process, in what seemed like an attempt to dissuade Lai from running, although he refused to abandon the idea.
After all, Lai was unhappy after his party’s performance in the nine-in-one elections and his resignation was seen by many as preparation for a challenge to Tsai.
It is clear that Taiwanese wanted to make their voices heard in the midterms, and they sounded off the loudest on one complaint: the economy. Taiwanese feel that Tsai has not done enough to improve it. They want to see rising wages and have a better quality of life. They used the vote to punish a party that had become too smug about being in power, yet had not taken the time to notice the public’s discontent.
However, the results of the primary poll made it clear that every election is different. Tsai received a boost not long after the midterms when she pushed back against Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) Jan. 2 speech and urged the international community to support Taiwan against what many Taiwanese perceived as a threat.
It would be fair to say that in the presidential election, the situation with China will take on a much more important role than in the midterms.
William Lai took the poll results calmly and did the honorable thing by calling Tsai and congratulating her on her victory in the primary. He also told reporters in Tainan that he “was born, raised and educated in Taiwan. Taiwan is our shared mother that I also deeply love. So I must again urge every one of you to support President Tsai and give her your blessings.”
Considering his reaction and his continued popularity, I think that he would make a good party candidate for the 2024 presidential election, although so much could happen between now and then.
Now that the primary is over and it seems like the unity of the party was left unscathed, the president and the DPP need to start preparing to face the nominee who wins the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) primary, scheduled to take place in the first half of this month. I think that they should pay special attention to one candidate: Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu (韓國瑜).
Han has made headlines week after week for months now, and if it is true that a great amount of his coverage comes in negative headlines, scandals, criticism for the lack of clarity in his proposals and even mockery of his slogans, there is a phrase that seems to apply to him: “There is no such thing as bad publicity.”
He is playing the media card very well. His coverage makes it worth drawing a parallel with the beginnings of US President Donald Trump’s campaign and how his extended media coverage — which at times was filled with mockery too — helped him expand his message and reach voters who might have otherwise ignored his statements and proposals.
Another thing that Han might exploit in the presidential election — if he does become the KMT nominee — is how he has convinced many of his followers that he can improve the economy. Some people have already linked his name to this idea. Whether it is people who actually believe his message or those who are only making fun of him with phrases like “making it rich” (發大財), he could use the perceived link between him and better economic conditions to attack Tsai, who is under criticism for her poor performance in this area.
His political skills must not be underestimated. He already won his election for mayor in a city that was under the DPP’s control for more than 20 years, pulling off something that many people thought would be impossible.
His rally in Taipei showed both his allies and critics that his support remains strong, bringing thousands of people to support him standing in the rain for hours.
His populist message has already resonated with many people in Taiwan, and if he is able to use the media to amplify the message and leave the controversies that have surrounded him in the past, he might be able to reach the highest office in Taiwan.
Many things can happen before the next presidential election, but it would be unwise not to heed what the “Han Wave” can achieve. Tsai must set in motion policies capable of capitalizing on the trade dispute between the US and China, implementing measures that improve economic conditions and increase salaries.
Voters will not forget Tsai’s passivity in the past toward Beijing and the majority of the electorate cannot ignore how Han has seemed a little too friendly toward China, but it would be a mistake for Tsai to think that Han’s cross-strait openness is enough for her to secure a second term.
Tsai has won the first battle by securing her party’s nomination, but the fight for next year’s presidential election is far from over.
Juan Fernando Herrera Ramos is a Honduran lawyer residing in Taiwan and has a master’s degree in business administration.
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