In a matter of weeks, the presidential primaries of the nation’s two major political parties will be over. Beyond all the easy answers of get-rich-quick populist appeals, hopefully the nation’s serious structural problems will be addressed in a rational manner.
Demographics is a part of this. The nation’s population is to start to shrink as early as 2022 by some accounts. The government is approaching this problem from various angles, seeking ways to increase the birthrate and undertake targeted immigration, as well as improving social, institutional and urban environments for elderly people.
Financial incentives to take the burden off new parents would hardly dent the problem. People are not delaying starting a family because of the immediate costs of having babies: They are intimidated by the exorbitant financial burden of raising a child through to adulthood. They are also uncertain about the future, in terms of financial, job and national security.
Salary stagnation over the past 20 years has only exacerbated the issue, as couples are unsure whether they can afford to have children, or simply have no time to raise them, with both parents obliged to work to make ends meet.
Schools, colleges and universities have had to cut courses or close altogether.
The answer is long-term planning; the projected size of the student recruitment pool has been known for a long time, and an adjustment in the number of places offered should have been made long ago.
According to the Times Higher Education World University Rankings for 2018-2019, National Taiwan University ranked No. 170 in the world, with National Chengchi University placing between 801 and 1,000. In comparison, China’s Tsinghua University ranked No. 22 and the National University of Singapore was just behind it at No. 23. Graduates are voting with their feet.
There is no reason why 23 million should be regarded as an ideal population size for the nation: If it falls, it falls. The important thing is to adjust government policy and social institutions to better cater to the new reality.
What does a shrinking working population mean for the economy and national competitiveness? This is only relevant in the context of how artificial intelligence and automation could affect the job market. The same principle applies to whether lower numbers of potential military recruits could pose a national security threat.
Immigration policy presents another potential solution, with its own advantages and unique challenges. Immigration has been resisted due to the perception that it deprives the local population of jobs. However, immigrants often work in jobs that locals do not want, such as caring for the elderly, which is low-paid, low-status, physically demanding work that would only become more necessary as the population ages.
Why not introduce professional training and accreditation in the sector, making it possible to increase the salaries and status of the job?
On the other end of the scale is immigration for professional and technical positions that employers cannot fill from among the local population. Protectionist restrictions on the numbers and nature of human resource outsourcing could hamper the nation’s economic competitiveness.
Finally, there is the need to upgrade the social and urban environment to meet the needs of the aging demographic. The government needs to invest more in state-funded long-term care for elderly people, and ensure that senior citizens can remain healthy and active later into their lives, so they do not require long-term care early. This includes improving welfare, reducing pollution and increasing accessibility and ease of thoroughfare in towns and cities, including improving the amount, width and usability of sidewalks.
This will cost money and might require increasing taxes. If that is the case, the government would need to make sure the necessity is effectively communicated.
Could Asia be on the verge of a new wave of nuclear proliferation? A look back at the early history of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which recently celebrated its 75th anniversary, illuminates some reasons for concern in the Indo-Pacific today. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin recently described NATO as “the most powerful and successful alliance in history,” but the organization’s early years were not without challenges. At its inception, the signing of the North Atlantic Treaty marked a sea change in American strategic thinking. The United States had been intent on withdrawing from Europe in the years following
My wife and I spent the week in the interior of Taiwan where Shuyuan spent her childhood. In that town there is a street that functions as an open farmer’s market. Walk along that street, as Shuyuan did yesterday, and it is next to impossible to come home empty-handed. Some mangoes that looked vaguely like others we had seen around here ended up on our table. Shuyuan told how she had bought them from a little old farmer woman from the countryside who said the mangoes were from a very old tree she had on her property. The big surprise
Ursula K. le Guin in The Ones Who Walked Away from Omelas proposed a thought experiment of a utopian city whose existence depended on one child held captive in a dungeon. When taken to extremes, Le Guin suggests, utilitarian logic violates some of our deepest moral intuitions. Even the greatest social goods — peace, harmony and prosperity — are not worth the sacrifice of an innocent person. Former president Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁), since leaving office, has lived an odyssey that has brought him to lows like Le Guin’s dungeon. From late 2008 to 2015 he was imprisoned, much of this
The issue of China’s overcapacity has drawn greater global attention recently, with US Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen urging Beijing to address its excess production in key industries during her visit to China last week. Meanwhile in Brussels, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen last week said that Europe must have a tough talk with China on its perceived overcapacity and unfair trade practices. The remarks by Yellen and Von der Leyen come as China’s economy is undergoing a painful transition. Beijing is trying to steer the world’s second-largest economy out of a COVID-19 slump, the property crisis and